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Ord. 2619-Adopting employment buildable lands Inventory BLI EOACOUNCIL BILL NO. 3236 ORDINANCE NO. 2619 AN ORDINANCE ADOPTING AN EMPLOYMENT BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY (BLI), 2023-2043 ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS (EOA), AND ASSOCIATED WOODBURN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN GOAL AND POLICY TEXT UPDATES (LA 23-02) WHEREAS, Oregon Revised Statute (ORS) 197 and Oregon Administrative Rule (OAR) 660-009 (Goal 9-Economic Development), along with the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan (WCP), provide the statutes and rules that guide local governments in how they prepare, plan, adopt, amend, and revise their comprehensive plans in compliance with the Statewide Planning Goals, including but not limited to sufficiency of employment land; and WHEREAS, periodic revisions and updates to the Comprehensive Plan are necessary and expected to comply with revisions to statutes and administrative rules, administer new and revised long-range plans, and address current issues; and WHEREAS, in January 2023, the City Council authorized the City to enter into a contract with Johnson Economics, LLC for planning consulting services related to supporting the City and Technical Advisory Group (TAG) in Goal 9 planning requirements and updates and the consultant and TAG completed their draft document review in August 2023; and WHEREAS, WDO 4.01.09 establishes that the City Council initiate consideration of any potential legislative amendments to the Comprehensive Plan by resolution; and WHEREAS, on October 9, 2023, the City Council passed Resolution No. 2221 directing staff to initiate a legislative amendment to the WCP relating to the BLI, EOA, and WCP employment goals and policies; and WHEREAS, on October 23, 2023, the City Council held a work session on the proposed amendments; and WHEREAS, pursuant to ORS 197.610, the City provided notice and submitted the proposed comprehensive plan changes to the Department of Land Conservation and Development prior to the first evidentiary hearing; and WHEREAS, on November 9, 2023, the Planning Commission, in conformance with WDO 4.01.098 and 4.01.1013, held a public hearing and unanimously recommended approval of the amendments to the City Council; and Page - 1 - Council Bill No. 3236 Ordinance No. 2619 WHEREAS, on December 11, 2023, the City Council held a public hearing and requested this Ordinance effecting the amendment (LA 23-02), NOW, THEREFORE, THE CITY OF WOODBURN ORDAINS AS FOLLOWS: Section 1. The Economic Opportunities Analysis (Exhibit A) and Buildable Land Inventory (Exhibit B), attached hereto and incorporated herein, are hereby adopted as elements of Volume II of the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan, thereby repealing and replacing all previously adopted EOA and BLI plans (Ordinance 2391, November 2005). Section 2. For purposes of this ordinance, the City's Comprehensive Plan goals and policies are amended as specified in Exhibit C. Amendments are shown as underlined (i.e. new text) and strikeout (i.e. deleted +o„+). After this ordinance amendment is adopted, the Community Development Director shall update the WCP to incorporate all revisions contained herein. Section 3. The legislative action taken by the Ordinance is explained and justified by the analysis and findings attached hereto and incorporated herein as Exhibit D. Approved as to form: City Att ey Date Approved: Frank Lonerdain, Mayor Passed by the Council Submitted to the Mayor Approved by the Mayor Filed in the Office of the Recorder ATTEST: vA Page - 2 - Council Bill No. 3236 Ordinance No. 2619 no oM ;h 20 n Lorw to `. Heather Pierson, City Recorder City of Woodburn, Oregon Page - 3 - Council Bill No. 3236 Ordinance No. 2619 Exhibit A CITY OF WOODBURN, OREGON ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS Prepared For: City of Woodburn, Oregon [Adopted January 2024] Exhibit A Acknowledgments Johnson Economics prepared this report for the City of Woodburn.Johnson Economics and the City of Woodburn thank the many people who helped to develop this document. Technical Advisory Group Melissa Ahrens, Department of Land Conservation and Development Arthur Chaput, Business Oregon Sharon Corning, Planning Commission Theresa Haskins, Portland General Electric/Utilities Jamie Johnk, Economic Development Director Chris Kerr, Community Development Director Frank Lonergan, Mayor Jim Row,Assistant City Administrator Blaine Oswald,Traded Sector Representative Peter Stalick, Kidder Mathews/Traded Sector Representative Curtis Stultz, Public Works Director Renata Wakeley, Special Projects Director Kelli Weese, Marion County Economic Development Consultants Brendan Buckley,Johnson Economics Jerry Johnson,Johnson Economics CJ Doxsee, MIG Matt Hastie, MIG This report was prepared in accordance with the requirements of OAR 660 Division 9:Economic Development. City of Woodburn Johnson Economics 270 Montgomery St. 621 SW Alder Street Woodburn, OR 97071 Suite 605 (503) 982-5222 Portland, OR 97205 (503) 295-7832 CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) II Exhibit A Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................................................1 II. WOODBURN ECONOMIC TRENDS............................................................................................................2 A. WOODBURN EMPLOYMENT AND FIRMS...........................................................................................................2 B. LOCAL POPULATION AND WORKFORCE TRENDS.................................................................................................4 III. COMMUNITY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL..............................................................................9 IV. INDUSTRY DIFFERENTIATION ANALYSIS.................................................................................................11 ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION(MARION COUNTY) ......................................................................................................11 ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION(CITY OF WOODBURN)..................................................................................................14 ECONOMICDRIVERS...........................................................................................................................................16 PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH(OED)............................................................................................................19 V. WOODBURN TARGET INDUSTRIES ANALYSIS.........................................................................................20 CITY OF WOODBURN TARGET INDUSTRIES...............................................................................................................21 A. Manufacturing.............................................................................................................................21 B. Transportation, Warehousing, & Utilities....................................................................................22 C. Health Care and Social Services...................................................................................................23 D. Accommodation&Food Services.................................................................................................24 E. Education.....................................................................................................................................25 F. Construction.................................................................................................................................26 G. Agriculture/Agricultural Support Businesses...............................................................................27 VI. FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT AND LAND NEED......................................................................................28 CITY OF WOODBURN EMPLOYMENT FORECAST........................................................................................................28 Overview of Employment Forecast Methodology................................................................................28 Scenario 1:Baseline 'Safe Harbor"Forecast........................................................................................29 Scenario 2:Adjusted Employment Forecast.........................................................................................30 Summary of Employment Forecast Scenarios......................................................................................31 EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECAST.............................................................................................................................32 Land Demand Analysis—Adjusted Forecast.........................................................................................32 VII. RECONCILIATION OF EMPLOYMENT LAND NEED AND INVENTORY........................................................36 VIII. CONCLUSIONS........................................................................................................................................39 APPENDIX A: INDUSTRY SITE REQUIREMENTS.....................................................................................................41 APPENDIX B: NATIONAL,STATE,AND COUNTY ECONOMIC TRENDS....................................................................46 APPENDIX C:BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY—METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) III Exhibit A 1. INTRODUCTION This report introduces analytical research presenting an Economic Opportunities Analysis (ECA) for the City of Woodburn, Oregon. Cities are required to reconcile estimates of future employment land demand with existing inventories of vacant and redevelopable employment land within their Urban Growth Boundary(UGB).The principal purpose of the analysis is to provide an adequate land supply for economic development and employment growth. This is intended to be conducted through a linkage of planning for an adequate land supply to infrastructure planning, community involvement and coordination among local governments and the state. To this end,this report is organized into six primary sections: ■ Economic Trends: Provides an overview of national, state, and local economic trends affecting Marion County and the City of Woodburn, including population projections, employment growth and a demographic profile. ■ Economic Development Potential:A discussion of the comparative advantages of the local community and work force. ■ Target Industries: Analysis of key industry typologies the City should consider targeting as economic opportunities over the planning period. ■ Employment Land Needs:Examines projected demand for industrial and commercial land based on anticipated employment growth rates by sector. ■ Capacity: Summarizes the City's inventory of vacant and redevelopable industrial and commercial land (employment land)within City of Woodburn's UGB. ■ Reconciliation: Compares short- and long-term demand for employment land to the existing land inventory to determine the adequacy and appropriateness of capacity over a five and twenty-year horizon. ■ Conclusions and Recommendations:Summary of findings and policy implications. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 1 Exhibit A 11. WOODBURN ECONOW TRENDS This section summarizes employment and workforce trends at the local level that will influence economic conditions in the City of Woodburn over the 20-year planning period.This section is intended to provide the economic context for growth projections and establish a socioeconomic profile of the community. A. WOODBURN EMPLOYMENT AND FIRMS As of 2023,the City of Woodburn is home to nearly 1,000 businesses with roughly 12,000 employees.1 The largest industries by employment are retail,agriculture,and health care,followed closely by tourism and manufacturing. Woodburn has the lowest employment representation in professional and administrative sectors. (Industry sectors are discussed in more detail in Section IV of this report.) FIGURE 2.1:ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTOR,CITY OF WOODBURN 2023 Estimated Major Industry Sector Employment Share of Employment 2023 Agriculture,forestry,fish/hunt 1,366 11% Construction 875 7% Manufacturing 1,059 9% Wholesale Trade 858 7% Retail Trade 2,469 21% Transportation,Warehouse,Utilities 910 8% Information 147 1% Finance&Insurance 129 1% Real Estate 81 1% Professional&Tech.Services 113 1% Administration Services 267 2% Education 771 6% Health Care/Social Assistance 1,366 11% Leisure&Hospitality 1,077 9% Other Services 294 2% Government 183 2% TOTAL 11,965 0% 10% 20% SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department,2021 QCEW data,Johnson Economics The local employment base is largely dominated by relatively small firms, with roughly 68% of businesses having fewer than 20 employees(Figure 2.2). This trend is in keeping with the national average. (This is based on the most 1 2023 figures have been estimated from 2021 data on firms and employment provided by the Oregon Employment Departments (the most recent year available.)The countywide growth rate experienced by industry sector between 2021 and 2023 was applied to estimate figures in 2023.OED provided historical Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages(QCEW)data through 2021,for the City of Woodburn. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 2 Exhibit A recent 2021 QCEW data for covered employment, and therefore doesn't cover all self-employment owner/operator businesses.)Just 2.1%of firms have more than 100 employees.This is again, in keeping with national trends. As of 2021,there were approximately 850 firms in Woodburn with covered employees. When employment growth and sole-proprietorship businesses are considered, the number of individual businesses in Woodburn is likely close to 1,000. FIGURE 2.2:DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS BY SIZE,CITY OF WOODBURN-2021 NAICS Industry Size of Firm/Employees Code <5 5-9 10-19 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 >500 Total 11 Agriculture,forestry,fishing,and hunting 5 1 4 2 1 3 0 0 16 21 Mining 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 23 Construction 90 20 6 0 3 1 0 0 120 31-32 Manufacturing 7 3 5 5 6 2 0 0 28 22 Utilities 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 42 Wholesale trade 14 7 5 3 0 1 1 0 31 44-45 Retail trade 52 39 39 22 1 3 1 0 157 48 Transportation 7 2 0 4 0 0 0 0 13 49 Delivery and warehousing 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 4 51 Information 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 6 52 Finance and Insurance 20 10 1 0 0 0 0 0 31 53 Real Estate and Rental 24 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 28 54 Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 25 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 30 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 56 Administrative and Wast Management 20 10 2 3 0 0 0 0 35 61 Educational services 4 1 1 4 6 1 0 0 17 62 Health care and social assistance 108 17 12 12 2 3 0 0 154 71 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 1 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 6 72 Accommodation and Food Services 16 13 16 19 1 0 0 0 65 81 Other services 43 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 60 92 Government 1 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 8 99 Unclassified 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 TOTAL 480 143 109 84 20 15 2 1 854 DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS BY SIZE >500 1111111 National (Private Sector) 250-499 Woodburn v 100-249 v E 50-99LU 0 20-49 v E 10-19 D z 5-9 <5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source:Oregon Employment Department,QCEW data CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 3 Exhibit A B. LOCAL POPULATION AND WORKFORCE TRENDS Population: With a population of roughly 26,500 people in 2022, the City of Woodburn represents 8% of Marion County's population.The city has grown at an estimated rate of 0.8% per year, in keeping with the growth rate of the county and state. The city has grown by 2,400 residents since 2010, which was 7%of the county's growth. FIGURE 2.3:SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION IN MARION COUNTY Marion County Population 2/ 3% iii,Stayton I . a um Silverton $% Woodburn 42 Other cities oiiil@11 u�ar Keizer ooi Unicorporated Salem SOURCE:Population Research Center,Portland State University When compared to the rest of the state, Marion County has a larger proportion of children, and around 2%fewer people aged 18-64, and around 3%fewer people aged 65 and older,thus having a proportionally smaller work force than the state.The trend towards an older population is a national trend due to the aging of the large Baby Boom generation. The first half of this generation is now past the traditional retirement age, while much of the younger half will be retiring over the coming decade. FIGURE 2.4:BROAD AGE DISTRIBUTION,WOODBURN,AND MARION COUNTY 30% oWoodburn(2000) Ln o N N Illi Woodburn(2021) ^ Marion Co.(2021) 20% r 0,0 OR 0,0 OR N c�-I o chi o M o 0 0 0 0 j 010 J IIIIIIII o o 10% n (((((((( W W o 0 0 Ln M M N 0% tax a ,10 o SOURCE:Population Research Center,Portland State University CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 4 Exhibit A Woodburn has a younger population than the county, with nearly a quarter of the population being younger than 15 years according to the Census(Figure 2.4). Between 2000 and 2021,those aged 45 to 74 years grew the most as a share of the population. Employment and Population Concentrations: The distribution of employment in Marion County is concentrated around the cities of Salem and Keizer,with most of the remainder in cities near the north of Marion County such as Woodburn. The distribution of population is somewhat more evenly distributed across the western side of the county(Figure 2.5). FIGURE 2.5:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT AND WORKFORCE,MARION COUNTY,2020 DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION a c J „vino N a 444 jl A j w S n �9 "o /4,d k`9 I P .� ! l) v ii er_-A r♦Y'. duanpl➢tl w SOURCE:Census Bureau,Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics(LEHD)Data FIGURE 2.6:NET INFLOW-OUTFLOW OF EMPLOYEES,WOODBURN,AND MARION COUNTY,2020 WOODBURN COMMUTING TRENDS MARION COUNTY COMMUTING TRENDS E . J71 � l !/ N✓%///1/ ff/ J ii r I r rN:r- e/ r i +lalJw /��;✓ iii f r,�� 1 i �� T� 7 63D 8 537 „� �� n5 57 41g �At 7�V 5 a i fli// N ll h�&omni �i ., i� iiiiiii� - r, t �� 5 mr e „A SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEHD Data CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 5 Exhibit A Commuting Trends: In 2020 (the most recent data available), the city of Woodburn was estimated to have 7.7k people commuting in for work, while 8.5k people commuted out; 1.8k residents both lived and worked in the city. These figures reflect"covered employment"as of 2020,the most recent year available.Covered employment refers to those jobs where the employee is covered by federal unemployment insurance. This category does not include many contract employees and the self-employed and therefore is not a complete picture of local employment.The figure discussed here is best understood as indicators of the general pattern of commuting and not exact figures. Of those residents who work outside of the city, the most common commute destinations are Portland, Salem, Wilsonville, and Tualatin. For local employees who commute in from outside of Woodburn, most live in Salem, Keizer, and Portland. Workforce Characteristics:Woodburn has a greater share of the less-educated adult population than the county or state(Figure 2.7). FIGURE 2.7:EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT PROFILE,2021 Population 25 years and older Count % Count % Count % Less Than High School Graduate 5,052 30.5% 31,449 13.5% 252,602 8.5% High school graduate(includes equivalency) 4,443 26.8% 58,173 25.1% 668,083 22.5% Some col lege,no degree 3,230 19.5% 60,710 26.1% 739,245 24.9% Associate's degree 1,179 7.1% 23,210 10.0% 270,372 9.1% Bachelors Degree 1,845 11.1% 38,232 16.5% 644,813 21.7% Graduate or professional degree 818 4.9% 20,447 8.8% 396,281 13.3% Tota 1 16,567 232,221 2,971,396 DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Graduate or professional degree 1J11 Woodburn 11111111 Oregon Bachelors Degree "0 r IL Marion County Associate's degree Some college,no degree W, High school graduate(includes equivalency) 26.8%° �li;Ii100 Less Than High School Graduate ^� 30.5% SOURCE:U.S.Census Bureau,2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates • Nearly a third of the local population has not completed high school, as compared to 8.5%statewide. • An additional 27%have a high school education. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 6 Exhibit A • 43% of the adult population has some education beyond high school, compared to 61% countywide, and 69%statewide. • 23%of local adults have completed a post-secondary degree, compared to 35%of the county population, and 44%of the state population. The lower education level in the local workforce points to good capacity to fill blue collar service and production jobs, as well as potential to benefit from increased opportunities for training and education on and off the job. • Woodburn has a higher share working in trade, transportation, and utilities (37%) and goods producing industries than the county (Figure 2.8). This includes retail, wholesale, warehousing, and shipping industries. • Woodburn has a younger workforce than the county, with 29% of workers less than 30 years of age, compared to 21%. • Working residents of Woodburn are more likely to be in lower income groups than the county. 38% of working Woodburn residents earn over$40k, while 47%of workers in the county do. This includes those working part-time jobs. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 7 Exhibit A FIGURE 2.8:CHARACTERISTICS OF LOCAL WORKFORCE,CITY OF WOODBURN AND MARION COUNTY,2020 DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS BY AGE Workers Aged 55 or older Workers Aged 30 to 54 18 1 Workers Aged 29 or younger 11111 Marion County 1111 Woodburn,OR DISTRIBUTION OF WORKERS BY INCOME Workers Earning Morethan$40k annually Workers Earning$15k to$40k annually f G; f(i Workers Earning$15k annually or less rij 1111'Marion County 11111 Woodburn,OR LOCAL EMPLOYMENT BY TYPE Workers in the"All Other Services" Industry Class Workers in the"Trade,Transportation,and Utilities"Industry Class I Workers in the"Goods Producing"Industry Class 1� ISHII 111111111!1 11111 Marion County 1111 Woodburn,OR SOURCE:Census Bureau,LEHD Data CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 8 Exhibit A Ill. COMMUNITY ECONOMic DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL The economic climate of a community helps foster growth of existing firms and industry clusters and make the area attractive for new businesses.The City of Woodburn has several advantages that boost its potential as a location for current and future business. Location: Woodburn enjoys a central location between the Portland Metro area 15 miles to the north, and the Salem Metro roughly 15 miles to the south,via the 1-5 freeway.The location puts the city's businesses in the middle of a large addressable market area and region which is home to a majority of the state's population and labor force. At the same time, the location separate from the major metro areas has allowed the city to maintain a small town identity and establish a strong base of agricultural and wood products industries based in the surrounding area. The agglomeration of retail businesses located near the freeway, anchored by the popular Woodburn Premium Outlets mall and Walmart Supercenter ensure that the city will remain a well-trafficked destination, with a market area far larger than the city itself.The central location also has made the community popular with warehousing and distribution businesses that take advantage of the transportation connections. Transportation Connectivity: Woodburn has strong transportation access via the 1-5 freeway, multiple highways, and heavy rail service.The freeway access is served by the recently upgraded interchange, meant to accommodate the large amount of incoming and outgoing traffic of residents, work force, visitors, and freight. Businesses in the immediate area are served by quick access and high visibility from the freeway. In addition to 1-5, businesses in Woodburn have access to the north/south Highway 99, and east/west Highway 214 which connect Woodburn to other parts of Marion and Clackamas Counties. These corridors serve as additional commercial corridors in older sections of the City. The historic downtown of Woodburn was oriented towards the Union Pacific Railroad mainline. The rail passes through central Woodburn and the Northeast Industrial Area,providing freight service to local businesses.Currently, no passenger service stops in Woodburn but that may become a possibility as the community and local economy grows. Portland International Airport is located approximately forty-five minutes to the north providing global air connections.The Salem Municipal Airport has recently been in discussions to provide some commercial service to a limited number of southwest states,which would provide nearer access to residents and businesses in Woodburn. Labor Market:The availability of ample and skilled labor is a key factor in economic development potential. Beyond the talent pool of Woodburn residents,the city's central location and freeway access give local businesses the ability to draw on a larger labor pool from the region. An estimated 81% of the local workforce commutes to Woodburn, with many coming from the Portland Metro region. While ideally these workers may eventually choose to relocate to the community, in the meantime businesses know they can attract workers with a full range of skills and experience from a broader area if necessary. The "Mid-Willamette Valley Supply and Target Industry Growth Recommendations for Marion, Polk and Yamhill Counties" (2014) report identified workforce issues as a need in Marion, Polk, and Yamhill counties. These issues included finding qualified workers with the proper basic and technical skills,training entry-level workers effectively, CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 9 Exhibit A and successfully employing contractors from staffing agencies. The report recommends establishing a Manufacturing Sector Partnership to address workforce development needs and other common issues. With the imminent opening and staffing of the large Amazon facility, along with other known employment developments, plus forecasted growth, drawing sufficient blue-collar workers to the area may remain a challenge for the foreseeable future, while attracting white-collar workers may be less difficult. The continued population growth in Woodburn and ready access to the Salem metro area, and the southern communities of the Portland metro area (Wilsonville,Tualatin)will help this effort. New and existing local businesses will also assist in developing the specific skills and education they will need from their workforce. Quality of Life:Woodburn offers a high quality of life and urban amenities to attract new workers and businesses to the city. The city offers a mixture of small-town lifestyle, diverse cultural activities, with access to nature and rural amenities, while also being a quick trip away from larger metro areas with additional urban amenities. The community features relatively affordable housing in comparison to other parts of the region, good schools, parks, and ample shopping and local services. Woodburn's location in the central Willamette Valley offers ready access to a full range of mountain recreation to the east, and Oregon's wine country to the west. Economic Development Partnerships: Woodburn has several partners in economic development, including the Woodburn Chamber of Commerce, SEDCOR, Portland General Electric (PGE), the Mid-Willamette Valley Council of Governments, Marion County, and Business Oregon. Woodburn features local outposts of Pacific University and Chemeketa Community College to offer ongoing education and training to the local workforce. The Willamette Workforce Partnership offers workforce training programs and employer matching in the mid-Willamette Valley area. Local and regional employers are also key partners in promoting and growing their industries.Woodburn works with these and other regional partners to provide the infrastructure and services needed to retain and attract businesses to the city. Economic Development Tools: Woodburn features an Enterprise Zone and Opportunity Zones which allow for tax abatements to incentivize new business development across the city.Woodburn also maintains an Urban Renewal area that covers the downtown area, the Highway 99 corridor, and the commercial area on the east side of the freeway, among other corridors. The urban renewal agency can offer incentives for development, secure key economic development sites, among other projects. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 10 Exhibit A IV. INDUSTRY DIFFERENTIATION ANALYSIS This element of the Economic Opportunities Analysis utilizes analytical tools to assess the economic landscape in Marion County and the City of Woodburn.The objective of this process is to identify a range of industry types that can be considered targeted economic opportunities over the planning period. A range of analytical tools to assess the local and regional economic landscape are used to determine the industry typologies the county I' and individual cities should consider targeting over the planning period.Where possible,we look to identify the sectors that are likely to drive growth in current and subsequent cycles. M M h 1111111 III Iii IIII ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION MARION COUNTY The most common analytical tool to evaluate economic specialization is location quotient analysis. This metric compares the concentration of employment in an industry at the local level to a larger geography. All industry categories are assumed to have a quotient of 1.0 on the national level, and a locality's quotient indicates if the local share of employment in each industry is greater or less than the share seen nationwide. For instance, a quotient of 2.0 indicates that locally, that industry represents twice the share of total employment as seen nationwide. A quotient of 0.5 indicates that the local industry has half the expected employment. A location quotient analysis was completed for Marion County,which evaluated the distribution of local employment relative to national averages, as well as average annual wage levels by industry(Figure 4.01).The industries that are well-represented countywide are good candidates for growth in localities such as Woodburn.The City has the ability to tap into regional advantages to grow locally. FIGURE 4.01:INDUSTRY SECTOR SPECIALIZATION BY MAJOR INDUSTRY,MARION COUNTY,2021 M I EM 10 Total,all industries 11,557 121,585 $6,105,541,487 $50,216 0.91 102 Service-providing 9,132 90,738 $4,461,154,907 $49,165 0.82 101 Goods-producing 2,425 30,847 $1,644,386,580 $53,308 1.32 1011 Natural resources and mining 534 9,862 $405,700,188 $41,136 5.13 1012 Construction 1,477 11,099 $720,762,208 $64,941 1.37 1013 Manufacturing 414 9,886 $517,924,184 $52,391 0.74 1021 Trade,transportation,and utilities 1,741 27,484 $1,263,760,738 $45,982 0.91 1022 Information 175 1,319 $106,478,987 $80,712 0.43 1023 Financial activities 938 5,298 $347,957,298 $65,673 0.58 1024 Professional and business services 1,670 14,020 $791,232,220 $56,435 0.6 1025 Education and health services 2,331 25,891 $1,502,268,872 $58,022 1.05 1026 Leisureand hospitality 903 11,799 $267,637,960 $22,684 0.77 1027 Other services 973 4,749 $173,169,193 $36,464 1.05 1029 Unclassified 401 177 $8,649,639 $48,799 0.84 Total 34,671 364,754 $18,316,624,461 $50,216 SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 11 Exhibit A Among major industries, the natural resources and mining industry was the most strongly represented, with construction being the next. Information and financial activities were the most under-represented major industries. The information sector provided the highest average wages among these industries,while the leisure and hospitality industry(tourism) has the lowest average wages. A more detailed industry analysis shows that the industries with the highest LQ in the county are fruit&vegetable preserving and manufacturing, support activities for agriculture&forestry, and crop production. Despite being the most over-represented industries relative to national averages, they still employ far fewer people than health care & social assistance, retail trade, or state government. The most under-represented industries are utilities, information,federal government, and professional&technical services. FIGURE 4.02:INDUSTRY SECTOR SPECIALIZATION BY DETAILED INDUSTRY,MARION COUNTY,2021 NAICS 11 Agriculture,forestry,fishing and hunting 523 9,595 $386,399,348 $40,270 7.05 NAICS 115 Support activities foragriculture and forestry 152 4,058 $153,048,602 $37,713 9.82 NAICS 111 Crop production 317 5,161 $215,609,008 $41,778 8.67 NAICS 21 Mining,quarrying,and oil and gas extraction 11 267 $19,300,840 $72,265 0.48 NAICS 22 Utilities 9 209 $26,212,327 $125,268 0.35 NAICS 23 Construction 1477 11,099 $720,762,208 $64,941 1.37 NAICS 31-33 Manufacturing 414 9,886 $517,924,184 $52,391 0.74 NAICS 321 Wood product manufacturing 29 1,370 $73,068,886 $53,345 3.07 NAICS 3114 Fruitand vegetable preserving and specialty food 23 2,354 $105,287,630 $44,722 12.34 manufacturing NAICS 42 Wholesale trade 441 3,608 $241,027,679 $66,801 0.58 NAICS 44-45 Retail trade 1,066 17,235 $656,682,257 $38,101 1.03 NAICS17 4482 Shoe stores 24 341 $34,310,689 $100,520 1.89 NAICS 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 226 6,431 $339,838,475 $52,844 0.99 NAICS 491 Postal service 4 27 $1,120,717 $40,877 3.30 NAICS 51 Information 175 1,319 $106,478,987 $80,712 0.43 NAICS 52 Finance and insurance 481 3,411 $260,397,011 $76,339 0.51 NAICS 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 456 1,887 $87,560,287 $46,396 0.78 NAICS 54 Professional,scientific,and technical services 937 4,770 $359,650,100 $75,396 0.44 NAICS 55 Management ofcompanies and enterprises 84 1,156 $91,852,592 $79,463 0.45 NAICS 56 Administrative and supportandwaste management 649 8,094 $339,729,528 $41,972 0.82 and remediation services NAICS 61 Educational services 135 2,592 $113,274,384 $43,709 0.84 NAICS 62 Health care and social assistance 2197 23,300 $1,388,994,488 $59,614 1.07 NAICS 71 Arts,entertainment,and recreation 126 1,155 $27,785,440 $24,064 0.54 NAICS 72 Accommodation and food services 777 10,644 $239,852,520 $22,534 0.80 NAICS 81 Otherservices(except public administration) 973 4,749 $173,169,193 $36,464 1.05 Federa I Government 51 1,374 $100,599,789 $73,212 0.44 State Government 169 20,471 $1,666,372,369 $81,404 4.13 Local Government 326 13,393 $852,622,300 $63,661 0.90 Total 12,252 169,956 $9,298,931,838 $54,714 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics The level of indicated export employment is estimated by sector by combining the location quotients and overall employment levels. Export industries are important in that they grow the overall size of the local economy by bringing in dollars from outside the community, rather than recirculating internal spending.The industries with the highest level of export employment are wood product manufacturing, retail trade, and agriculture and forestry. The industries with the highest total employment in Marion County are state government, agriculture; forestry; fishing;and hunting, crop production, support activities for agriculture&forestry, and construction. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 12 Exhibit A FIGURE 4.03:TOP TEN INDUSTRIES IN TERMS OF TOTAL AND EXPORT EMPLOYMENT,MARION COUNTY(2021) MIAMI Health care and social assistance 23,300 Fruit and vegetable preserving 12.34 State Government 20,471 Support foragr.and forestry 9.82 Retail trade 17,235 Crop production 8.67 Local Government 13,393 Agr.,forestry,fishing,hunting 7.05 Construction 11,099 State Government 4.13 Accommodation and food services 10,644 Postal service 3.30 Manufacturing 9,886 Wood product manufacturing 3.07 Agriculture,forestry,fishing and hunti 9,595 Shoe stores 1.89 Administrative and waste manageme 8,094 Construction 1.37 Transportation and warehousing 6,431 Health care and social assistan 1.07 EXPORT EMPLOYMENT BY AVERAGE ANNUAL INDUSTRY WAGES BY INDUSTRY State Government MEMEMEM State Government MIMMI Agriculture,forestry,... IMMIN Agriculture,forestry,...NE Crop production ME Crop production ME Support activities for... IN Support activities for...NE Construction Construction Fruit and vegeta ble... Fruit and vegetable... Health care and social... Health care and social...SEE Wood product... Wood product...IME Retail trade ' Retail trade ME Otherservices(except... Otherservices(except...EN Shoe stores Shoe stores IMEMMI Postal service Postal service ME Transportation and... Transportation and...IME Mining,quarrying,and... U Mining,quarrying,and...111100 Utilities U Utilities SENSEEM Educational services U Educational services Real estate and rental... Real estate and rental... Arts,entertainment,... Arts,entertainment,and... Management of... Management of...IMIME Local Government Local Government JIM Information Information MIMEM Federal Government Federal Government MIMMI Administrative and... Administrative and...ME Wholesale trade Wholesale trade Accommodation and... Accommodation and... Finance and insurance Finance and insurance INEE Manufacturing Manufacturing MIM Professiona I,scientific,... MIN Professiona I,scientific,...IMME -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 $0 $100,000 $200,000 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 13 Exhibit A ECONOMIC SPECIALIZATION (CITY OF WOODBURN) The same analysis for the City of Woodburn reveals high levels of employment concentration in industries such as agriculture, educational services,delivery and warehousing,wood and food product manufacturing, and retail. FIGURE 4.04:INDUSTRY SECTOR SPECIALIZATION BY DETAILED INDUSTRY,CITY OF WOODBURN,2021 Agriculture,forestry,fishing,and hunting 16 595 $11,773,508 $19,787 6.61 Mining 2 25 $1,967,323 $78,693 0.68 Construction 120 685 $43,333,614 $63,261 1.28 Food Manufacturing 7 275 $11,849,012 $43,087 1.70 Wood Manufacturing 11 572 $35,476,128 $62,021 2.46 Metals Manufacturing 10 178 $11,819,452 $66,401 0.36 Utilities 2 58 $5,155,964 $88,896 1.48 Wholesaletrade 31 826 $56,117,302 $67,939 2.01 Retail trade 157 2,295 $90,847,361 $39,585 2.07 Transportation 13 157 $10,573,002 $67,344 0.68 Delivery and warehousing 4 591 $36,914,180 $62,461 2.94 Information 6 133 $9,458,990 $71,120 0.65 Finance and Insurance 31 116 $5,780,955 $49,836 0.26 Real Estateand Rental 28 73 $2,658,234 $36,414 0.46 Professional,Scientific,and Technical Srvs 30 97 $4,219,592 $43,501 0.14 Management of Companies and Enterprises 3 56 $6,909,500 $123,384 0.33 Administrative and Waste Management 35 230 $8,697,493 $37,815 0.35 Educational services 17 722 $43,323,323 $60,005 3.54 Health care and social assistance 154 1,280 $56,570,018 $44,195 0.89 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 6 66 $2,072,958 $31,408 0.46 Accommodation and Food Services 65 916 $19,974,752 $21,806 1.04 Other services 60 238 $8,216,912 $34,525 0.79 Government 8 180 $13,547,362 $75,263 0.12 Total 816 10,364 $497,256,935 $47,979 SOURCE: Oregon Employment Department The top sectors in terms of overall employment were retail trade, health care & social assistance, manufacturing, and accommodation &food services.There were ten industries with positive export employment,the largest being retail trade, educational services, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting. The large concentration of retail trade employment is located around the Woodburn Premium Outlets that employ roughly 950 people across 111 stores. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 14 Exhibit A FIGURE 4.05:TOP TEN INDUSTRIES IN TERMS OF TOTAL AND EXPORT EMPLOYMENT,CITY OF WOODBURN(2021) • • • ME • • EM • Retail trade 2295 Agr.,forestry,fishing, hunting 6.61 Health care and social assistano 1280 Educational services 3.54 Accommodation and Food ServicE 916 Deliveryand warehousing 2.94 Wholesale trade 826 Wood Manufacturing 2.46 Educational services 722 Retail trade 2.07 Construction 685 Wholesale trade 2.01 Agr.,forestry,fishing,hunting 595 Food Manufacturing 1.70 Deliveryand warehousing 591 Utilities 1.48 Wood Manufacturing 572 Construction 1.28 Food Manufacturing 275 Accommodation and Food Service 1.04 EXPORT EMPLOYMENT BY AVERAGE ANNUAL I NDUSTRY WAGES BY INDUSTRY Retail trade Retail trade Educational services Educational services Agriculture,forestry,... Agriculture,forestry,... Wholesale trade Wholesale trade Delivery and... Delivery and... Wood Manufacturing Wood Manufacturing Construction Construction Food Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Accommodation and... Accommodation... Management of... Management of... Arts,Entertainment,... Arts,Entertainment,... Mining Mining Utilities Utilities Otherservices u Ort her services Information u Information Transportation u Transportation Real Estate a nd Rental Real Estate a nd Rental Health care and... Health care and... Metals Manufacturing Metals Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Finance and Insurance Administrative and... Administrative and... Professional,... Professiona I,... Government Government -2,00&1,000 0 1,0002,000 $0 $100,000 $200,000 SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department and Bureau of Labor Statistics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 15 Exhibit A ECONOMIC DRIVERS The identification of the economic drivers of a local or regional economy is critical in informing the character and nature of future employment, and by extension land demand over a planning cycle.To this end, we employ a shift- share analysis of the local economy emerging out of the latter half of the recent expansion cycle2. A shift-share analysis is an analytical procedure that measures the local effect of economic performance within a particular industry or occupation. The process considers local economic performance in the context of national economic trends—indicating the extent to which local growth can be attributed to unique regional competitiveness or simply growth in line with broader trends. For example, consider that Widget Manufacturing is growing at a 1.5% rate locally,about the same rate as the local economy.On the surface we would consider the Widget Manufacturing industry to be healthy and contributing soundly to local economic expansion. However, consider also that Widget Manufacturing is booming across the country, growing at a robust 4% annually. In this context, local widget manufacturers are struggling, and some local or regional conditions are stifling economic opportunities. We can generally classify industries,groups of industries, or clusters into four groups: Growing, Outperforming: Industries that are growing locally at a rate faster than the national average. These industries have characteristics locally leading them to be particularly competitive. Growing, Underperforming: Industries that are growing locally but slower than the national average. These industries generally have a sound foundation, but some local factors are limiting growth. Contracting, Outperforming: Industries that are declining locally but slower than the national average. These industries have structural issues that are impacting growth industry wide. However, local firms are leveraging some local or regional factor that is making them more competitive than other firms on average. Contracting,Underperforming: Industries that are declining locally at a rate faster than the national average.These industries have structural issues that are impacting growth industry wide. However, some local or regional factors are making it increasingly tough on local firms. The average annual growth rate by industry from 2011 to 2021 in Marion County was compared to the national rate. The observed local change was compared to a standardized level reflecting what would be expected if the local industry grew at a rate consistent with national rates for that industry. As shown in Figure 4.06, most county industries grew at a slower rate than the rest of the country.Sectors that did experience a notable positive regional shift in employment during this period were construction, administrative& waste services, retail trade, health care & social assistance, and state government. The sectors that outperformed expectations the most were construction, administrative&waste services, and state government. Sectors with the greatest negative regional shift in employment were finance & insurance, real estate, and rental and leasing, and educational services. 2 Measured from 2011 through 2021 CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 16 Exhibit A FIGURE 4.06:INDUSTRY SECTOR SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS,MARION COUNTY(2011-2021) r r r Farm Employment 8,011 8,025 14 0.0% 7,856 169 Forestry,Fishing,and Related Activities 3,217 2,943 (14) -0.9% 3,484 ("Al) Mining 446 447 1 0.0% 331 116 Construction 7,765 14,295 6,530 6.3% 10,365 3,930 Manufacturing 10,468 10,818 350 0.3% 11,064 Wholesale Trade 3,967 4,310 343 0.8% 4,067 243 Retail Trade 18,234 21,398 3,164 1.69/. 19,448 1,950 Information 1,534 1,795 261 1.69/. 1,622 173 Finance and Insurance 6,729 6,591 (N:'9:3) -0.2% 8,092 (N,'iq': ) Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 7,283 8,541 1,258 1.69/. 9,279 (/38) Professional,Scientific,and Technical Services 6,910 8,250 1,340 1.8% 8,557 Od:'0 Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,037 1,306 269 2.3% 1,373 (C/) Administrative and Waste Services 7,288 10,940 3,652 4.19/. 8,428 2,512 Educational Services 4,091 4,259 168 0.49/. 4,642 (383) Health Care and Social Assistance 20,656 26,318 5,662 2.5% 24,355 1,963 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 2,738 2,782 44 0.2% 2,941 (111)9) Accommodation and Food Services 10,172 11,790 1,618 1.5% 11,183 607 Other Services(except Public Administration) 8,229 8,808 579 0.79/. 8,855 (41) Federal Civilian 1,413 1,390 ( !'.'+) -0.2% 1,423 (3,3) Military 889 788 (1.91) -1.2% 824 (99) State Government 18,375 20,850 2,475 1.3% 18,413 2,437 Local Government 14,067 13,652 (9111)) -0.3% 13,945 (293) IF IF TOTAL 163,519 190,296 26,777 1.5% 180,547 9,749 7,000 IL��Predicted 6,000 5,000 IIIIIII Observed 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 111211111 OD CO OD OCO O a+ �p N - N N Vl Vl Vl E O C U OC p m O W U C Q O u O O O W a+ U p- -O >� O m -O O v '� -p C7 C7 E m L am+ > m Ul m JO .a+O N Q +' Vt O U " O s v E lJJ 0 0 E U E 0 p E N W O N v N O S O E Q Q Q O 2 � LL C *Employment level in each industryhad itgrown atthe same rate as its counterparts atthe national level over the same period. SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 17 Exhibit A When the same analysis is done for the city of Woodburn,the city's growth outperformed the rest of the country in additional industries.The best performing sectors on this measure in the local economy were agriculture and forestry, manufacturing,construction, and health care&social services.These sectors grew faster than expected based on the national pace. FIGURE 4.07:INDUSTRY SECTOR SHIFT SHARE ANALYSIS,CITY OF WOODBURN(2011—2021) EM,IBM: Agriculture,forestry,fishing,and hunting 56 595 539 26.7% 57 538 Mining 9 25 16 0.0% 7 18 Construction 289 685 396 9.0% 386 299 Manufacturing 611 1,025 414 5.3% 646 379 Utilities 24 58 34 0.0% 25 33 Wholesale trade 716 826 110 1.4% 764 62 Retail trade 2,079 2,295 216 1.0% 2,217 78 Transportation 66 157 91 9.1% 67 90 Delivery and warehousing 533 591 58 1.0% 537 54 Information 99 133 34 3.0% 105 28 Finance and Insurance 149 116 33) -2.5% 179 ('63) Real Estate and Rental 146 73 (!3) -6.7% 186 (w!w!3) Professional,Scientific,and Technical Srvs 125 97 :18� -2.5% 155 q'`?,8 Management of Companies and Enterprises 63 56 P) 0.0% 83 (21) Administrative and Wast Management 260 230 3c,: -1.2% 301 Educational services 788 722 (CC) -0.9% 894 (12) Health care and social assistance 934 1,280 346 3.2% 1,101 179 Arts,Entertainment,and Recreation 80 66 (4) -1.9% 86 (0) Accommodation and Food Services 704 916 212 2.7% 774 142 Otherservices 209 238 29 1.3% 225 13 Government 317 180 31,) -5.5% 294 N:,'i,) TOTAL 8,257 10,364 2,107 2.3% 9,087 1,277 600 500 111 Predicted 400 I Observed 300 200 NIIIII �� N 100 � o � � I � 1�III�,11111\0\1`IUIIIUII �� 1111\0\� �m1\11111` 11�1� IHE IUIIIUIII ,�,,,� �...„y�...11 OD CO CO O OD CW Y 2 C U W CO W U C _ C N ` W y, w — Q 2 W 2 'j E L E 0 E yJj U W OD - In E > O E C E o - N vIm C v p W '9j U o 0 nv E o 2 E N W O J 0 W C Suu JE E Q Q U w wU oD o Q C Q 2 *Employment level in each industryhad itgrown atthe same rate as its counterparts at the national level overthe same period. SOURCE:U.S.Department of Commerce,Bureau of Economic Analysis CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 18 Exhibit A PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (OED) The State of Oregon produces employment forecasts by sector at the broader regional level, which groups Linn, Marion, Polk, and Yamhill Counties together into one Mid-Willamette Valley region. The most recent forecast anticipates a gain of 35,000jobs from 2021 through 2031, reflecting an average annual growth rate of about 1.2% during the period.This area has historically seen strong growth,and recovery from the COVID pandemic has been promising. In this region, the industries with the fastest growth rates are projected to be transportation, warehousing, & utilities(T.W.U)followed by accommodation&food services,and leisure&hospitality. Furthermore, none of the industries are projected to experience negative growth in the coming years.The projected large increase in the T.W.0 industry is in part due to the large Amazon distribution facility currently under construction in Woodburn. FIGURE 4.08:PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR,MID-VALLEY COUNTIES(2021—2031) Total employment 000110= 12% Total payroll employment MENIMEM 13% Total private1[IIJI[114 ".'i 15% Natural resources and mining JIM 7% Mining and logging 0% Construction 110011111E= 16% Manufacturing 0110= 9% Durable goods 01019M 10% Wood product manufacturing I= 5% Nondurable goods 1111= 8% Wholesale trade III= 6% Retail trade NIM 7% Transportation,warehousing,and utilities 44% Information EM 5% Financial activities 11 2% Professional and business services 00011MIKIM 15% Private educational and health services1[IIJl�l1 ". 14% Health care and social assistance1[IIJEM 14% Leisure and hospitality 36% Accommodation and food services 36% Other services 00111111= 13% Government EM 6% Federal government 0% State government 6% Local government 6% Local education 2% Self-employment 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department,Workforce and Economic Research Division CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 19 Exhibit A V. WOODBURN TARGET INDUSTRIES ANALYSIS The preceding analysis provides a basis for narrowing of target industries for the City of Woodburn.These indicators point to sectors of past and potential growth, as well as locally expressed economic development vision for the community. The following is a summary of targeted sectors and indicators for Woodburn, and the broader mid- Willamette Valley region. Woodburn Targets and Indicators Manufacturing Retail Trade Machineryand Production Equipment Health Care Plastics Manufacturing Agriculture Metal Products Tourism Food Products Manufacturing Apparel Transportation and Distribution Auto Transport Equipment Construction Warehousing and Distribution Wholesale Information Technology Educational Services Agriculture and Forestry Agriculture and Forestry Educational Services Manufacturing Wood Products Construction Food Products Health Care and Social Services Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Service Wholesale Trade Construction Regional and Statewide Targets Outdoor Gear and Apparel d Forestry&Wood Products Advanced Manufacturing Advanced Manufacturing Agricultural and Food Processing Business Services Wood Products and Forestry Food & Beverage Transportation and Distribution Bioscience Government(Salem-focused) Metals & Machinery High Technology d e d r ® ® Transport,Warehousing, Distribution NW Agriculture Innovation Hub Manufacturing STEM Workforce in Ag and Food Ind. Health Care Regional Recruitment Construction CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 20 Exhibit A These broader analyses arrived at similar conclusions of the advantageous industries for Woodburn and the Marion County region in general, including wood product, food product and other manufacturing, transportation and distribution, agriculture, and support industries including health care, education, and construction. CITY OF WOODBURN TARGET INDUSTRIES The preceding analysis of industry strengths and regional priorities provided a foundation for the discussion of local target industries for the City of Woodburn. Through the ECA planning process, the advisory committee of local stakeholders reviewed the economic goals, priorities,and target industries from the prior adopted plans,and agreed upon the following list of priority sectors to help meet the community's economic development goals. The selected industries reflect the community's historical strengths and advantages, regional trends,and local goals and objectives. These are discussed in more detail in the following pages: • Manufacturing • Transportation,Warehousing, Utilities • Health Care and Social Assistance • Construction • Tourism (Accommodation and Dining) • Agricultural Support Businesses • Education Note:The following discussion of target sectors relies on the most recent QCEW data from the Oregon Employment Department,dating to 2021. Total employment figures are updated to an estimate for 2023 in the following section of this report. A. MANUFACTURING Manufacturing has been a long-standing target sector for the City of Woodburn, and the sector is well represented among current businesses. Local employers manufacture products from wood, metals, plastics and food inputs, at all levels of complexity from basic supply inputs to other industries, to manufactured housing. Targets are high- technology manufacturing, including in support of the region's semiconductor and data center clusters, machinery and automation tech for other industries, and transportation equipment manufacturing, including emergin electric vehicle tech and infrastructure. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 1,025 g 9% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $57,702 GROWTH 2011-2021 416 FLEETWOOD HOMES INC FJORD LLC UFP WOODBURN LLC SPECIALTY POLYMERS INC UNITED PACIFIC FOREST PRODUCTS 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 311 Food Manufacturing 138 61 44.2% $49,474 321 Wood Product Manufacturing 444 206 46.4% $55,734 325 Chemical Manufacturing 78 48 61.5% $111,036 326 Plastics &Rubber Manufacturing 43 5 11.6% $41,757 332 Fabricated Metal Manufacturing 97 2 2.1% $74,952 333 Machinery Manufacturing 62 -27 -43.5% $58,296 Other 163 121 74.2% $38,221 Total 1,025 416 40.6% $57,702 CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 21 Exhibit A This sector has good location quotient and shift share indicators in Woodburn.Manufacturing provides good average incomes and skill building opportunities to blue-collar workers. The covered employment level in this sector was 1,025 in 2021, representing roughly 10%of the local employment base. Employment levels in the sector increased by 40%from 2011 through 2021.The average annual wage was approximately$57,700 per year in 2021. Cluster Strengths , ■ Good foundation of existing manufacturing businesses and recent I pl VAI growth. ■ Diversified inputs and product types. ■ Experienced manufacturing work force, and training opportunities. • Solid wages in many manufacturing subsectors. ill i Cluster Challenges r� ■ Scaling up the skilled workforce quickly. ■ Increasing shortage of appropriate industrial land. While manufacturing has experienced secular decline nationwide over many ;1 decades, there are still many opportunities for producers that benefit from proximity to inputs and the intended market, advanced production techniques and skills.Woodburn has demonstrated the ability to foster and grow this sector. B. TRANSPORTATION,WAREHOUSING,&UTILITIES Increasingly, Woodburn will be a major location of warehousing and distribution employment in the region. With the imminent completion of the Amazon distribution facility, along with other planned distribution developments, this sector is poised to become one of the largest employers, if not the largest, in Woodburn in the very near future. The benefits of Woodburn for the distribution industry are clear, given industrial lands available near a freeway interchange, and between the Portland and Salem markets. Other opportunities include additional "last mile" distribution facilities, which are smaller in scale. Other targets in this broad sector are new utility infrastructure, including build out of power and water capacity to serve new industry. Support for trucking terminals and charging stations will be increasingly important as the shipping industry shifts to electric vehicles. Data centers and related telecom infrastructure have been one of the fastest growing needs nationwide to support online activity, and this growth is expected to be sustained into the foreseeable future. Innovation in the data center industry allows for the use of smaller sites and facilities in more locations. Cluster Strengths 111,zlil Freeway and rail access and exposure. ■ Central location to Oregon's largest population centers and markets. 1-111, ■ Large new employers in this sector will bolster the cluster. Cluster Challenges NMI Finding sufficient workforce regionally,given the size of the new facility. • May face temporary shortage of affordable workforce housing. ■ Eventual potential to overburden freeway interchange capacity. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 22 Exhibit A SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 747 7.2% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $63,571 GROWTH 2011-2021 148 WI NCO FOODS DARI GOLD INC FIRST STUDENT MANAGEMENT LLC RYDER SYSTEM ROADLI NK WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 484 Truck Transportation 88 71 417.6% $87,231 488 Transportation Support Activities 30 27 900.0% $59,966 493 Warehousing&Storage 564 58 11.5% $62,694 Other 65 -8 -11.0% $40,809 Total 747 148 24.7% $63,571 The overall employment level in this sector was 750 in 2021, representing roughly 7%of the local employment base, but this is set to increase substantially in the next year. The average annual wage was approximately $63,500 per year in 2021. Employment levels in the sector increased by 25%from 2011 through 2021. This sector will have a major impact on the local economy and is likely to grow. Additional businesses in this sector are likely to be smaller in size, with many supporting"last mile" logistics. C. HEALTHCARE AND SOCIAL SERVICES Like most communities, Woodburn will increasingly face growing health care needs from a growing and aging population.The health care needs of the Baby Boom generation, the oldest of which are approaching 80 years old and the youngest approaching 60, are expected to increase the need for health care facilities and workforce over the next 20 years. The community has expressed an economic development goal of attracting a medical center or hospital to Woodburn to meet local needs as the city continues to grow quickly. Currently, residents must travel to the Salem area to access more advanced health care and specialists. The overall employment level in this sector was 1,280 in 2021, representing roughly 12% of the local employment base.The average annual wage was approximately$44,200 per year in 2021,with a significant range between wages for social workers and health care workers. Employment levels in the sector increased by 28%from 2011 to 2021. Cluster Strengths ■ Growing and aging population base. ■ Low local competition for many specialties and more advanced healthcare. ■ Ability to serve larger market of north Marion County and rural Clackamas County. Cluster Challenges ■ Attracting a major medical group. ■ Potential competition with Keizer/Salem market. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 23 Exhibit A SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 1,280 12.3% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $44,195 GROWTH 2011-2021 353 WOODBURN HEALTH CENTER SALUD MEDICAL CENTER OREGON CHILD DEVELOPMENT COALITION COUNTRY MEADOWS VILLAGE LLC FRENCH PRAIRIE NURSING&REHABILITATION HOME CARE WORKERS 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 539 71 13.2% $61,354 623 Nursing and Residential Care 350 96 27.4% $35,351 624 Social Assistance 391 186 47.6% $28 615 Total 1,280 353 27.6% $44,195 D. ACCOMMODATION&FOOD SERVICES Woodburn features a strong accommodation and food services sector that can continue to grow. The dining sector benefits from the strong draw of the freeway-oriented commercial areas, as well as organic growth in residents and local businesses. The accommodation sector benefits from local tourism draws, as well as being a central freeway stop for travelers.As large new distribution and other industrial businesses locate in the area,the spending on dining can be expected to increase significantly, which will support business growth and new entrants. The overall employment level in this sector was 916 in 2021, representing roughly 9%of the local employment base. The average annual wage was approximately $21,800 per year in 2021, making it one of the lower-wage service industries.This reflects the fact that many of these jobs are part-time. Employment levels in the sector increased by 31%from 2011 through 2021. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 916 g 8% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $21,806 GROWTH 2011-2021 215 WOODBURN-DENN LLC GREENTREE I I I INC RED ROBIN GOURMET BURGERS AND BREWS PANERA CAFE LUIS'S TAQUERI A LLC 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 721 Accomodation 63 10 18.9% $30,369 722 Food Services 856 205 31.5% $21,174 Total 919 215 30.5% $21806 CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 24 Exhibit A Cluster Strengths ■ Freeway access and exposure to travelers and visitors to local shopping and attractions. ■ Expected growth in spending from new employment and households. ■ Central location. Cluster Challenges ■ Few challenges. ■ Diminishing buildable commercial sites near the freeway interchange. E. EDUCATION Most local education employment is in the public school system however the community has identified the potential to increase adult education and training opportunities for the local workforce. This might be pursued through partnerships with local resources like Chemeketa Community College, Pacific University, and the Willamette Workforce Partnership, or a new Regional Innovation Hub focused on thriving local sectors. UAMMUM• • SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 722 6.9% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $60,005 GROWTH 2011-2021 ( 6) WOODBURN HIGH SCHOOL FRENCH PRAIRIE MIDDLE SCHOOL CHEMEKETA COMMUNITY COLLEGE PACI FI C UNIVERSITY-WOODBURN 2021 Growth'11-71 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 611 Educational Services 722 -66 -8.4% $60,005 Total 722 -66 -8.4% $60,005 The overall employment level in this sector was 722 in 2021, representing roughly 7%of the local employment base. The average annual wage was approximately $60,000. Employment levels in the sector fell by over 8%from 2011 through 2021. Cluster Strengths ■ Growing unmet market for local on-going education and workforce training ■ Available public and private sector partnerships ■ Potential additional capital investments in Woodburn by higher-education partners, including a planned bond measure for Chemeketa Community College. Cluster Challenges ■ Few challenges. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 25 Exhibit A F. CONSTRUCTION Construction is well-represented in Woodburn,with many large contracting , companies located in the community. Construction firms offer generally - well-paying blue-collar jobs with excelling on-the-job training and 1 �t transferrable skills development.The sector has a strong location quotientm and shift share indicators in Woodburn.Construction firms benefit from the same centralized location in the mid-Willamette Valley as many other sectors, with contractors able to accessob sites across a large region with 1 g g their equipment and workforce. c �m The overall employment level in this sector was 685 in 2021, representing roughly 7% of the local employment base. The average annual wage was approximately$63,300 per year in 2021. Employment levels in the sector increased by 137%from 2011 to 2021. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 685 6.6% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $63,261 GROWTH 2011-2021 396 KERR CONTRACTORS OREGON INC WOLFERS HEATING AND AIR CONDITIONIN TRI PLETT WELLMAN INC. KERR MANAGEMENT COMPANY INC GRACE POINT CONTRACTING LLC I &E CONSTRUCTION 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 236 Building Construction 231 178 77.1% $54,141 237 Civil/Infrastructure Construction 193 56 29.0% $91,125 238 Subcontractors 261 162 62.1% $50,727 Total 685 396 137% $63,261 Cluster Strengths ■ Ongoing demand for construction firms in a growing city and region. ■ Centralized location with access for equipment and workforce to regional market. ■ Experienced construction work force, and training opportunities. ■ Generally high blue-collar wages. Cluster Challenges ■ Increasing shortage of appropriate industrial land. Construction is generally a resilient sector in areas that continue to experience organic growth in population and jobs such as Oregon.Even as broader economic trends may depress some aspects of real estate development, other sectors are often healthy or growing, and specialties such as public infrastructure development are resistant to economic cycles. This sector is a good industry for a relatively young, diverse, and less educated workforce like Woodburn's. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 26 Exhibit A G. AGRICULTURE/AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT BUSINESSES This sector remains an important one in Woodburn, representing a good share of local employment and featuring a high location quotient and shift share rating. Many of these firms supply labor for rural operations, so the need for commercial or industrial real estate in the community is limited. However,given the size and strong performance of this sector it is included here as a continuing target industry. The thriving agricultural economy in the mid- Willamette Valley will ensure that businesses that support these operations will continue to be an opportunity. The overall covered (i.e., QCEW)employment level in this sector was roughly 600 in 2021, representing roughly 6% of the local employment base. However, when non-covered employment is estimated, this sector is estimated to employ over 1,300 workers and represents 11% of local employment (see following section of this report for total employment estimates as of 2023).The average annual wage is low at approximately$20,000 per year in 2021, but this remains an important sector for Woodburn's highly diverse population. SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 2021 EMPLOYMENT 595 5.7% AVERAGE ANNUAL WAGE $19,787 GROWTH 2011-2021 539 FARM LABOR CONTRACTORS BRUCEPAC TREE TOP TRACTOR, FARM EQUIPMENTAND IRRIGATION SUPPLIERS 2021 Growth'11-'21 Average NAICS Description Employment Total % Wage 115 Agriculture/Forestry Support 595 553 1316.7% $19,787 Other 0 -14 -100% - Total 595 539 963% $19,787 Cluster Strengths ■ Location among high value farmlands. ■ Experienced labor force. ■ Supports many other local industries, such as food product manufacturing. ■ Though much of the employment activity takes place outside of the City,wages,and spending return to the community. Cluster Challenges ■ Low paying employment. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 27 Exhibit A V1. FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT AND LAND NEED CITY OF WOODBURN EMPLOYMENT FORECAST Goal 9 requires that jurisdictions plan for a 20-year supply of commercial and industrial capacity. Because employment capacity is the physical space necessary to accommodate new workers in the production of goods and services, employment need forecasts typically begin with a forecast of employment growth in the community.The previous analysis of economic trends and targeted industries set the context for these estimates. This analysis translates those trends into estimates of employment growth by broad industry. Forecasts are produced at the sector or subsector level (depending on available information), and subsequently aggregated into two-digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) sectors. Estimates in this analysis are intended for long-range land planning purposes and are not designed to predict or respond to business cycle fluctuation. The projections in this analysis are built on an estimate of employment in 2023, the commencement year for the planning period. Employment growth will come as the result of net-expansion of existing businesses in the community, new business formation, or the relocation/recruitment of new firms. Forecast scenarios consider a range of factors influencing growth. Long-range forecasts typically rely on a macroeconomic context for growth.The forecast does not consider the impact of a significant exogenous shift in employment such as recruitment of an unforeseen major employer. OVERVIEW OF EMPLOYMENT FORECAST METHODOLOGY Our methodology starts with employment forecasts for major commercial and industrial sectors. Forecasted employment is allocated to building type, and a space demand is a function of the assumed square footage per employee ratio multiplied by projected change.The need for space is then converted into land and site needs based on assumed development densities using floor area ratios(FARs). FIGURE 6.01:UPDATE TO 2020 BASELINE AND CONVERSION OF COVERED TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT �E s � IIIIIIIIIIIIIII� �r�«<il�li " " Illlllllll�f�Ilil„ Illlllllll��lli�� o 000iii� � iiii��iaoioi�o�riaioo r iii iiiiii�aarrrriaatttl 1 / Yfll u //ir,�,f/ � Illll I)1111111) I��1�J>)IIIIIII>11 �� I��U�J»a1JJ�lailliliilil,�� I � .N� . . l I The first analytical step of the analysis is to update covered employment to the 2023 base year.The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data was used to determine the City of Woodburn's covered employment by industry through 2021, the latest year available. To update these estimates, we use observed industry specific growth rates for Marion County between 2021 and 2023. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 28 Exhibit A The second step in the analysis is to convert"covered"3 employment to "total" employment. Covered employment only accounts for a share of overall employment in the economy. Specifically, it does not consider sole proprietors or commissioned workers. Covered employment was converted to total employment based on observed ratios at the national level derived from the Bureau of Economic Analysis from 2014 through 2021. The differential is the most significant in administration services, professional&technical services, and other services.The adjusted 2023 total employment base for the city of Woodburn is 11,965 jobs. FIGURE 6.02:UPDATE TO 2023 BASELINE AND CONVERSION OF COVERED TO TOTAL EMPLOYMENT,CITY OF WOO DBURN(2021—2023) QCEW Employment 2021 '21-'23 2023 Total Emp. 2023 Major Industry Sector Employment CountyA Estimate Conversion Estimate Agriculture,forestry,fishing,hunting 595 1.0% 601 44% 1,366 Construction 685 3.8% 711 81% 875 Manufacturing 1,025 1.0% 1,036 98% 1,059 Wholesale Trade 826 1.3% 837 98% 858 Retail Trade 2,295 2.4% 2,349 95% 2,469 T.W.U.3 806 2.1% 823 91% 910 Information 133 4.3% 139 95% 147 Fi na nce&I ns ura nce 116 1.1% 117 91% 129 Real Estate 73 1.1% 74 91% 81 Professional &Technical Services 97 5.5% 102 91% 113 Administration Services 230 5.5% 243 91% 267 Education 722 1.8% 735 95% 771 Health Care/Social Assistance 1,280 1.8% 1,304 95% 1,366 Leisure&Hospitality 982 3.9% 1,020 95% 1,077 Other Services 238 4.7% 249 85% 294 Government 180 1.8% 183 100% 183 TOTAL 10,283 2.3% 10,524 88% 11,965 Source:Johnson Economics 1)Growth rate calculated using CES data for Marion&Polk County 2)Bureau of Economic Analysis(2021 National Averages) 3)T.W.U.=Transportation,Warehousing,and Utilities SCENARIO 1:BASELINE"SAFE HARBOR'S FORECAST The Goal 9 statute does not have a required method for employment forecasting.However,OAR 660-024-0040(9)(a) outlines several safe harbor methods, which are intended to provide jurisdictions a methodological approach that will not be challenged.The recommended approach for the City of Woodburn is 660-024-0040(9)(a)(A),which allows reliance on the most recent regional forecast published by the Oregon Employment Department(see Figure 4.08).4 This method applies industry specific growth rates for the Mid-Valley Oregon Workforce Region (Linn, Marion, Polk, & Yamhill counties) to the City of Woodburn's 2023 base employment. This method results in an average annual growth rate of 1.4%, with a total growth of 3,853 jobs over the forecast period. 3 The Department of Labor's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)tracks employment data through state employment departments.Employment in the QCEW survey is limited to firms with employees that are"covered"by unemployment insurance. 4 The second safe harbor method described under OAR 660-024-0040(9)(B)allows using the most recently forecasted population growth rate for the City from the PSU Population Research Center.The employment growth rate may be assumed to match the population growth rate. This option was reviewed by the Technical Advisory Group but ultimately declined. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 29 Exhibit A SCENARIO 2:ADJUSTED EMPLOYMENT FORECAST A second adjusted forecast scenario was influenced by the research and analysis conducted in the EOA.This scenario formulates an employment growth trajectory based on identified trends, a more optimistic growth outlook for targeted industries,and input from the project technical advisory group.Further,the alternative scenario recognizes that economic development efforts and public policy can influence realized growth in targeted sectors. FIGURE 6.03:COMPARISON OF ALTERNATE FORECASTS,CITY OF WOODBURN(2023-2043) i - • • e • - Industry 2023 2043 Chg. AAGR 2023 2043 Chg. AAGR Agriculture,Forestry,etc. 1,366 1,551 185 0.6% 1,366 1,653 286 1.0% Construction 875 1,169 294 1.5% 875 1,350 475 2.2% Manufacturing 1,059 1,262 204 0.9% 1,059 1,439 380 1.5% Wholesale Trade 858 973 114 0.6% 858 1,035 177 0.9% Retail Trade 2,469 2,811 343 0.7% 2,469 2,999 530 1.0% Transportation,Warehouse,Utilities 910 1,885 976 3.7% 910 3,202 2,293 6.5% Information 147 163 16 0.5% 147 167 20 0.6% Finance&Insurance 129 134 5 0.2% 129 134 5 0.2% Real Estate 81 84 3 0.2% 81 84 3 0.2% Professional &Technical Services 113 150 37 1.4% 113 150 37 1.4% Administration Services 267 356 89 1.4% 267 356 89 1.4% Education 771 947 176 1.0% 771 1,049 278 1.6% Health Care/Social Assistance 1,366 1,772 406 1.3% 1,366 2,291 924 2.6% Leisure&Hospitality 1,077 1,981 904 3.1% 1,077 2,301 1,223 3.9% Other Services 294 373 79 1.2% 294 373 79 1.2% Government 183 205 22 0.6%1 183 211 27 0.7% TOTAL: 11,965 15,818 3,853 1.4% 11,965 18,793 6,828 2.3% Construction 1111 Scenario I (OED Forecast) Manufacturing 11111 IIIIIIIII Scenario II Adjusted Forecast Wholesale Trade VIII (Adjusted ) Retail Trade 11111 h Transportation,Warehouse,Utilities* VIII Information Finance&Insurance Real Estate Professional&Technical Services VIII Administration Services IIII Education III Health Care/Social Assistance VIII Leisure&Hospitality IIII Other Services IIII Government 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Job Growth Source:Oregon Employment Department,Johnson Economics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 30 Exhibit A The adjusted scenario considers the influence of known or anticipated development over the near- and medium- term horizon, and local economic development goals.This scenario forecasts an average annual growth rate of 2.3% for the period, for a total addition of 6,828 new jobs. The forecasted rate of 2.3% is in keeping with the realized employment growth rate since 2010 of 2.2%per year, (source:Oregon Employment Department, QCEW data). SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT FORECAST SCENARIOS The two forecast scenarios in this analysis range from 1.4%to 2.3% average annual growth. Job growth estimates range from 3,850 to 6,830 jobs over the 20-year period. Forecasts grounded in broad based economic variables cannot account for all the realities of local businesses and trends among evolving industries.Any long-term forecast is inherently uncertain and should be updated on a regular basis to reflect more current information. This is particularly true in a smaller jurisdiction such as Woodburn,in which a single large firm's location and/or operational decision may substantively impact the rate of growth. FIGURE 6.04:SUMMARY OF PROJECTION SCENARIOS,CITY OF WOODBURN Overall Employment Net Change by Period Total Industrx 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043 23-28 28-33 33-38 38-43 23-43 Agriculture,forestry,fishing,hunting 1,366 1,410 1,456 1,503 1,551 44 46 47 48 185 Construction 875 941 1,011 1,087 1,169 66 71 76 82 294 Manufacturing 1,059 1,106 1,156 1,208 1,262 48 50 52 54 204 WholesaleTrade 858 886 914 943 973 27 28 29 30 114 Retail Trade 2,469 2,550 2,635 2,722 2,811 82 84 87 90 343 T.W.U. 910 1,092 1,310 1,571 1,885 182 218 262 314 976 Information 147 151 154 158 163 4 4 4 4 16 Finance&Insurance 129 130 131 133 134 1 1 1 1 5 Real Estate 81 82 83 84 84 1 1 1 1 3 Professional&Technical Services 113 121 130 140 150 8 9 10 10 37 Administration Services 267 287 308 331 356 20 21 23 25 89 Education 771 811 854 899 947 41 43 45 47 176 Health Care/Social Assistance 1,366 1,458 1,556 1,661 1,772 92 98 105 112 406 Leisure&Hospitality 1,077 1,255 1,461 1,702 1,981 177 206 240 280 904 Other Services 294 312 331 351 373 18 19 20 22 79 Government 183 188 194 199 205 5 5 5 6 22 TOTAL: 11,965 12,780 13,685 14,692 15,818 815 905 1,007 1,126 3,853 Agriculture,forestry,fishing,hunting 1,366 1,433 1,503 1,576 1,653 67 70 73 77 286 Construction 875 975 1,087 1,211 1,350 100 112 124 139 475 Manufacturing 1,059 1,185 1,264 1,349 1,439 127 79 84 90 380 WholesaleTrade 858 900 943 988 1,035 41 43 45 47 177 Retail Trade 2,469 2,592 2,721 2,857 2,999 123 129 136 142 530 T.W.U. 910 1,246 1,707 2,338 3,202 336 461 631 864 2,293 Information 147 151 156 162 167 5 5 5 5 20 Finance&Insurance 129 130 131 133 134 1 1 1 1 5 Real Estate 81 82 83 84 84 1 1 1 1 3 Professional&Technical Services 113 121 130 140 150 8 9 10 10 37 Administration Services 267 287 308 331 356 20 21 23 25 89 Education 771 832 899 971 1,049 62 67 72 78 278 Health Care/Social Assistance 1,366 1,555 1,769 2,013 2,291 188 214 244 278 924 Leisure&Hospitality 1,077 1,302 1,575 1,903 2,301 225 272 329 398 1,223 Other Services 294 312 331 351 373 18 19 20 22 79 Government 183 190 196 203 2111 6 7 7 7 27 TOTAL: 1 11,965 13,294 14,804 16,609 18,7931 1,329 1,510 1,806 2,184 6,828 Source:Oregon Employment Department,Johnson Economics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 31 Exhibit A The forecasts were further broken down into four five-year increments, assuming a consistent rate of growth over the period.We would expect that a twenty-year forecast will include multiple business cycles, and that growth will be variable. EMPLOYMENT LAND FORECAST The next analytical step in our analysis is to convert projections of employment into forecasts of land demand over the planning period. The generally accepted methodology for this conversion begins by allocating employment by sector into a distribution of building typologies those economic activities typically use. As an example, insurance agents typically locate in traditional office space, often along commercial corridors. However,a percentage of these firms are also located in commercial retail space adjacent to retail anchors.Cross tabulating this distribution provides an estimate of employment in each typology. The next step converts employment into space using estimates of the typical square footage exhibited within each typology. Adjusting for market average vacancy we arrive at an estimate of total space demand for each building type. Finally,we can consider the physical characteristics of individual building types and the amount of land they typically require for development.The site utilization metric commonly used is referred to as a "floor area ratio" or FAR. For example,assume a 25,000-square foot general industrial building requires roughly a site of roughly 100k square feet to accommodate its structure,setbacks,parking,and necessary yard/storage space.This building would have an FAR of roughly 0.25. Demand for space is then converted to net acres using a standard floor area ratio FAR for each development form. LAND DEMAND ANALYSIS-ADJUSTED FORECAST In this analytical step we allocate employment growth to the standard building typologies. The building typology matrix represents the share of sectoral employment that is located across various building types. (Note that only a fraction of employment in the agricultural sector is assumed to need urban real estate, as many of these companies operate in unincorporated areas in the region around the city. Food processing operations are captured under "manufacturing.") CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 32 Exhibit A FIGURE 6.05:DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYMENT BY SPACE TYPE,CITY OF WOODBURN(ADJUSTED FORECAST) 20-year Job Forecast BUILDING TYPE MATRIX Industry Sector Number AAGR Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.ind. Warehouse Retail Agriculture,forestry,etc. 286 0.6% 10% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0% Construction 475 2.2% 14% 0% 18% 40% 18% 10% Manufacturing 380 1.5°% 8°% 0°% 24°% 60°% 8°% 0°% WholesaleTrade 177 0.9°% 8°% 0°% 22°% 20% 40% 10% Retail Trade 530 1.0% 5% 1% 6% 0% 12% 76% T.W.U. 2,293 6.5% 10% 0% 12% 18% 55% 5% Information 20 0.6% 25% 0% 25% 40% 0% 10% Finance&Insurance 5 0.2°% 72°% 1°% 5°% 1°% 1°% 20°% Real Estate 3 0.2°% 72°% 1°% 5°% 1°% 1°% 20°% Professional &Technical Services 37 1.4°% 72°% 1°% 5°% 1°% 1°% 20°% Administration Services 89 1.4°% 72°% 1°% 5°% 1°% 1°% 20°% Education 278 1.6% 30% 53% 5% 1% 1% 10% Health Care 924 2.6% 30% 53% 2% 0% 0% 15% Leisure&Hospitality 1,223 3.9°% 20°% 1°% 7°% 1°% 1°% 70°% Other Services 79 1.2°% 72°% 1°% 5°% 1°% 1°% 20°% Government 1 271 0.7% 1 43% 35% 5% 1% 1% 15% TOTAL 1 6,8281 2.3% 1 17% 10% 10% 13% 23% 24% Source:Johnson Economics FIGURE 6.06:ASSUMED DISTRIBUTION OF SPACE BY TYPE AND INDUSTRY SECTOR,CITY OF WOODBURN Agriculture,forestry,etc. Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade ))) (( ))) (( ))) (( ))) (( ))) (( ))) (( ))) (( T.W.U. Information Finance&Insurance Real Estate Professional&Technical Services Administration Services Education Health Care Leisure&Hospitality ))) ((( ))) ((( ))) ((( ))) ((( ))) ((( Other Services Government ))) (((( ))) (((( ))) (((( IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII�IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII�IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII�IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII�ii�YIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIfffl((((II��IIIIIIIIIIIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIfffl((((II��IIIIIIIIIIIIUIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIfffl((((Il��llllllllllllls:�� 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1111111111 Office 1111111 Institutional 1111111 Flex/B.P i Gen.ind. ill Warehouse 1111111 Retail Source:Johnson Economics CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 33 Exhibit A Under the employment forecast scenario, employment housed in retail space accounts for the greatest share of growth, followed by employment housed in warehouse and office space. The combined employment forecast in commercially zoned space(^3,600 jobs)is somewhat greater than that forecast for industrially zoned space(^3,000 jobs). Note that the 6,613 total jobs shown here is less than the total employment in the adjusted forecast (6,838 jobs) because not all agricultural jobs require commercial real estate space. FIGURE 6.07:NET GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY BUILDING TYPE,CITY OF WOODBURN(ADJUSTED FORECAST)2023-2043 NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT BY BUILDING TYPE-2023-2043 Industry Sector Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Agriculture,forestry,etc. 29 0 0 0 43 0 72 Construction 66 0 85 190 85 47 475 Manufacturing 30 0 91 228 30 0 380 Wholesale Trade 14 0 39 35 71 18 177 Retail Trade 27 5 32 0 64 403 530 T.W.U. 229 0 275 413 1,261 115 2,293 Information 5 0 5 8 0 2 20 Finance&Insurance 4 0 0 0 0 1 5 Real Estate 2 0 0 0 0 1 3 Professional &Technical Services 27 0 2 0 0 7 37 Administration Services 64 1 4 1 1 18 89 Education 83 147 14 3 3 28 278 Health Care 277 490 18 0 0 139 924 Leisure&Hospitality 245 12 86 12 12 856 1,223 Other Services 57 1 4 1 1 16 79 Government 12 10 1 0 0 4 27 TOTAL 1,171 666 658 892 1,572 1,655 6,613 Source:Johnson Economics Employment growth estimates by building type are then converted to demand for physical space. This conversion assumes the typical space needed per employee on average.This step also assumes a market average vacancy rate, acknowledging that equilibrium in real estate markets is not 0%vacancy.We assume a 10%vacancy rate for office, retail, and flex uses, as these forms have high rates of speculative multi-tenant usage. A 5%rate is used for general industrial and warehouse—these uses have higher rates of owner occupancy that lead to lower overall vacancy. Institutional uses are assumed to have no vacancy, as they are typically purpose-built for healthcare, nonprofit, government, or related users. The demand for space is converted into an associated demand for acreage using an assumed Floor Area Ratio(FAR), based upon the observed FAR in existing Woodburn commercial and industrial properties.The combined space and FAR assumptions further provide estimates indicated of job densities, determined on a per net-developable acre basis. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 34 Exhibit A FIGURE 6.08:NET ACRES REQUIRED BY BUILDING TYPOLOGY,CITY OF WOODBURN(ADJUSTED FORECAST)-20-YEAR DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2023-2043 Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Employment Growth 1,171 666 658 892 1,572 1,655 6,613 Avg.SF Per Employee 350 350 990 600 1,800 500 829 Demand for Space(SF) 410,000 233,200 651,100 534,900 2,828,800 827,300 5,485,300 Floor Area Ratio(FAR) 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 Market Vacancy 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 6.5% Implied Density(Jobs/Acre) 33.6 37.3 9.9 17.2 5.7 19.6 12.5 Net Acres Required 34.9 17.8 66.4 51.7 273.4 84.4 528.7 Share for infrastructure (Net-to-Gro 20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% Gross Acres Required 43.6 22.3 78.2 60.8 321.7 105.5 632.1 Source:Johnson Economics Commercial office and retail densities are 33 and 20 jobs per acre, respectively. Industrial uses range from 17 for general industrial to less than 6 jobs per acre for warehouse/distribution.The overall weighted employment density is 13 jobs per acre, with the projected 6,600-job expansion in the local employment base through 2043 requiring an estimated 529 net acres, and 632 gross acres, of employment land. An estimated 73% of this forecasted need is industrial land,and 27%commercial land.A major reason for this is the lower average employment density typically seen in industrial land use. There is a significant distinction between bulk land capacity and readily available site supply.To be considered readily available, land must currently have appropriate entitlements and be served by adequate infrastructure capacity to accommodate short-term development.Some of the land inventory will be in sites and locations that may be harder to serve quickly and efficiently and CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 35 Exhibit A VII. RECONCILIATION OF EmPLOYMENT LAND NEED AND INVENTORY The inventory of buildable employment land provides a snapshot of the current local capacity to accommodate more businesses and jobs over the planning period. This current available land is compared to the forecasted need for new land over the 20-year planning period, presented in Section VI. SUMMARY OF LAND DEMAND(ACRES) The estimate of future land need is re-presented below. A total need for 632 gross acres was identified across a range of land use and building types, based on the adjusted growth forecast. FIGURE 7.01: SUMMARY OF FORECASTED 20-YEAR LAND NEED BY BUILDING TYPOLOGY(WOODBURN) DEMAND BY GENERAL USE TYPOLOGY,2023-2043 Office Institutional Flex/B.P Gen.Ind. Warehouse Retail Total Employment Growth 1,171 666 658 892 1,572 1,655 6,613 Avg.SF Per Employee 350 350 990 600 1,800 500 829 Demand for Space(SF) 410,000 233,200 651,100 534,900 2,828,800 827,300 5,485,300 Floor Area Ratio(FAR) 0.30 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 Market Vacancy 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 5.0% 5.0% 10.0% 6.5% Implied Density(Jobs/Acre) 33.6 37.3 9.9 17.2 5.7 19.6 12.5 Net Acres Required 34.9 17.8 66.4 51.7 273.4 84.4 528.7 Sha re for i nfrastructu re (Net-to-Gros20% 20% 15% 15% 15% 20% 16% Gross Acres Required 43.6 22.3 78.2 60.8 321.7 105.5 632.1 Source: Oregon Employment Department,City of Woodburn,Johnson Economics LLC An estimated 73%of this forecasted need is industrial land (business park, general industrial, warehouse), and 27% commercial land (office, retail, institutional). There is a forecasted need for a total of 391 net (461 gross) acres of industrial land, and 137 net(171 gross)acres of commercial land. SUMMARY OF LAND SUPPLY(ACRES) To assess the remaining supply of buildable employment land suitable to accommodate the 20-year land need, an inventory of land with the proper zoning was conducted. The following is a summary of the results on that inventory. A more detailed explanation of the methodology and findings of the Buildable Land Inventory(BLI) is presented as Appendix C of this report. The BLI filtered all of the zoned employment land in Woodburn by Commercial or Industrial zoning category, environmental constraints that will limit development, and whether the parcel is already developed, vacant, or partially vacant(see Appendix C for more detail).The inventory was vetted to address development projects in the pipeline and known limitations on specific sites that will prevent development on all or a portion of the site. The following figure presents the estimated net developable acres of land by zone.There are an estimated 65 net acres of buildable Commercial land and an estimated 77 net acres of buildable Industrial land. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 36 Exhibit A FIGURE 7.02: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY,NET DEVELOPABLE ACRES BY ZONE(WOODBURN) Vacant Partially Vacant Total CammerciM General (CG) 34.1 4.1 38.2 C:o,m rn e I-ci a I Offu ce (CO) 3.3 1.1 4.4 Downtown Development & 0.6 0.2 0.8, Conservation (DDQ Mixed Use Viflage�MLJV) 0.4 0.1 0.5 UGB Coimmerr.W 7.01 14.0 21.01 Commercial/Mixed use Subtotal 45.3 19.5 64.8 Light IndLIStriM (IL) 27.4 9.2 36.6 Industrial Park(IPS 1.8 18.6 20.4 LJGB Instriaq 20.2 0.0 20.2 Industrial Subtotal 49.4 27.9, '77.3 'Total 94J 47.4 142.1 Source: City of Woodburn,MIG FIGURE 7.03: BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY,EMPLOYMENT LAND By DEVELOPMENT STATUS(WOODBURN) 1,1 rrr f„ vw'om 'A —wfiamo,t A-, C, mft Source: City of Woodburn,MIG CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 37 Exhibit A KNOWN EMPLOYMENT SITES IN ADDITION TO THE BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY Two known sites are currently permitted or under construction for new industrial space that will house future employment. Because of the advanced development status of these sites, they were not counted among the inventory of remaining buildable land.However,these sites do not yet house their future employment and therefore are counted with the BLI as providing estimated capacity to hold a share of the projected jobs over the next 20 years. These sites are the Amazon distribution facility (81.3 acres), near completion at the time of this analysis.The other site is a planned and permitted multi-tenant industrial development (29.6 acres) also located in the Southwest Industrial Reserve. In total these two known sites are 110.8 acres of industrial land as shown in Figure 7.04, which is added to the BLI as additional effective employment land capacity. COMPARING RECONCILIATION OF 20-YEAR LAND SUPPLY AND DEMAND Comparing the Buildable Land Inventory (including known sites under development) to the 20-year forecast of employment land need indicates that the City of Woodburn faces a deficit of employment land over the planning period in both the Commercial and Industrial categories. A summary of the comparison of land supply and demand is presented below. FIGURE 7.04: RECONCILIATION OF LAND SUPPLY AND 20-YEAR DEMAND(WOODBURN) 20 YR'. BUILDABLE Plus Known TOTAL BLI+ SURPLUS OR, EMPLOYMENT ZONING DESIGNATION DEMAND LAND Future Ernp. KnoWn Sites (DEFICIT) (Gross Acres) (Acres) Sites(Acres) (Acres) (Gross Acres) COMMERCIAL(RETAIL AND OFFICE) 171.4 64.8 0.0 64.8 (106.6) Commercial General (CG) 38.2 Commercial Office(CO) 4.4 Downtown Dev.&Conservation(DDC) 0.8 Mixed Use ViIIage(MUV) 0.5 UGB Commercial 21.0 INDUSTRIAL(INDUSTRIAL AND OFFICE) 460.7 77.3 110.8 188.1 T'!!.6) Light Industrial (IL) 36.6 110.8 147.4 Industrial Park(IP) 20.4 0 UGB Industrial 20.2 0 TOTAL: 632.11 142.1 110.8 252.9 1Two known sites are currently permitted or under construction for new industrial space that will house future employment.Because of the development status of these sites,theywere not counted among the inventory of remaining buildable land.However,these sites do not yet house theirfuture employment and therefore are counted here as providing estimated capacityto hold a share of projected jobs overthe next 20years.These sites are the Amazon distribution facility(81.3 acres),near completion atthe time of this analysis.The othersite is a planned and permitted multi-tenant industrial development(29.6 acres)also located in the Southwest Industrial Reserve. Source: Johnson Economics,MIG • This analysis indicates that Woodburn faces a deficit of 107 gross Commercial acres, and 273 gross Industrial acres,for a total employment land deficit of 380 gross acres. • It is important to note that some of the forecasted growth will include employers who may have specific site needs and preferences that are not reflected in the available buildable inventory. (See Appendix A for more details on site preferences for certain key industries.)In particular,there is forecasted demand for more suitable large-lot industrial sites while relatively few of these sites were found in the inventory that are unconstrained. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 38 Exhibit A Vill. CONCLUSIONS The EOA report points to several key conclusions regarding economic development goals and target industries in Woodburn over the next 20 years. It also quantifies projected employment growth and land need within the UGB, and the adequacy of the current supply of employment land to meet that need. A number of local advantages were identified that help enhance Woodburn's economic development potential Some main themes are: • The centralized location between the Portland and Salem metro areas makes Woodburn a good place to live and do business for those seeking to serve the regional market. • The network of the I-5 freeway and highways serving the mid-valley provides excellent transportation connectivity for local businesses.The freeway interchange provides quick access and excellent visibility. • The city can draw on a regional labor market to support growing businesses and attract new industries. • Woodburn offers a high quality of life for those who live and work locally. • The City can leverage regional economic development partnerships with local employers, business organizations, other government and non-profit agencies,and educators. • Woodburn has established economic development tools including an Enterprise Zone, Opportunity Zone, and Urban Renewal incentives. Employment Growth Woodburn is home to an estimated 11,965 jobs as of 2023. The largest sectors by number of jobs are retail trade, health care and social assistance,agriculture support industries, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Based on a forecasted annual growth rate of 2.3%, the city is expected to add roughly 6,830 jobs by 2043. The greatest growth in number of jobs is projected to be in many of the same strong sectors, along with transportation and warehousing, construction, and education. Broken down into broad categories of employment that tends to use commercial office/retail space, or that tends to use industrial space,the analysis forecasts that the 20-year demand for new employment land will be somewhat more weighted towards industrial land (73%)than commercial land (27%). Expanding&Target Industries The city has current advantages in several key industries including manufacturing of a wide range of product types, construction, retail, shipping and transportation, tourism. However, in keeping with the identified economic objectives, a range of potential target industries for growth were identified through this process. The target industries reflect industries where the area has shown historic strength, as well as sectors with robust growth potential and consistency with the locally expressed vision for the community: 1) Manufacturing 2) Transportation,Warehousing, Utilities 3) Health Care and Social Assistance 4) Construction 5) Tourism (Accommodation and Dining) CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 39 Exhibit A 6) Agricultural Support Businesses 7) Education Supporting growth in a range of industries will help the community build a more diverse and sustainable employment and tax base for the future and be more resilient to economic impacts on the traditional local industries. Employment Land Need The EOA analysis finds that the forecasted 20-year job growth by industry will translate to a need for 529 total net acres(632 gross acres)of land zoned for employment uses. The distribution of land need between commercial uses (Office, Institutional, Retail)and industrial uses(Industrial,Warehouse, Business Park)leans towards industrial(73% vs.27%). A range of site sizes will be needed, ranging from small to large,to accommodate the projected business expansion. Different commercial and industrial users have different site requirements driven by the specific nature of their business operations,firm size, location and infrastructure requirements, and other factors. Adequacy of Employment Land Supply The Buildable Land Inventory(BLI)of employment lands completed in conjunction with the EOA found a total of 143 net buildable acres in Commercial and Industrial zones. • The projected 20-year need for Commercial land trails the supply significantly, with an estimated 65 acres of commercial land remaining to meet a projected need for 171 gross acres.This indicates a deficit of 107 gross acres of Commercial land. • There is a projected supply of 77 net acres of Industrial land to meet the forecasted need of 461 gross acres. There are also two known employment sites under development which will have a total of 110 gross acres of industrial land in addition to the BLI.This leaves a deficit of 273 gross acres of Industrial land. • The total estimated deficit of employment land is 379.2 gross acres. • The largest remaining contiguous development sites in Woodburn are under 20 acres in size, with most being five acres or less. In addition, roughly one third of the remaining buildable land is found in partially vacant parcels where the decision to add further development is subject to the desires of current property owners and/or tenants.The land for large-lot industrial or large commercial employers is very limited. FIGURE 8.01: SIZE OF REMAINING BUILDABLE SITES,BY ACRES,BUILDABLE LAND INVENTORY,(WOODBURN) Number of lots Share Commercial/Mixed use 0—5 acres 69 97.2% 5—10 acres 2 2.8% >10 acres 0 0% Commercial/Mixed use Subtotal 71 Industrial 0—5 acres 17 73.9% 5—20 acres 6 26.1% >20 acres 0 0 Industrial Subtotal 23 Total 94 CITY OF WOODBURN ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 40 Q v v v u a to CL w LU 75- m CL LL W O U U to ++ C �n •a cr 7 Q — co O 0 a E0 > J a1 a1 Q •a ++ •— C •�n '++ ++ a1 io X O a) bp L U a) a) O rl C U a) O O "a L -� .S lH C W a) a O b - O _ - v t o c > v ao �n O a) c U O >O O ns N !n CL > — +�+ w C C p m LL0 V)Ln C CL t G i ++ CLLn N —' a1 Q" W a1 L a1 a1 c0 (O x •j ns p '-p O LL C Q tao to O Ln E QC "a Q V O C L ns co L u O Q ns ++ O .0 u p •� a O Ln Q L U U a) U bA Ln a1 O Ln C Ln Q a) O Ln O a) O v to +�+ C a '++ C LnbA N Ln . 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YvUl Y3c �i F oL O - Y OUD O In 3 N p c y u a �b F O Q O W QW w o O. ib Vl `l Y W J U K j oO o V U O V O L ` IY M. Q W �^ Q o > v 3 a Q on p my U C Q{ c o op o J O o v v c w h ¢ N Q J U E y O L w E a• c O O av+ E T Z d Ti d v ° o V Ul — E .2H U p L c o E C g = _ c Q'- > 0 ° v O LU E O LL m - vi C V v O w V z o f 3 4T O m V p W V Z D 0 m y N � Q + N DO N Y LU m v O V i } F- L/) V Exhibit A APPENDix B: r STATE., AND COUNTY ECONOW TRENDS This section summarizes long and intermediate-term trends at the national,state,and county level that will influence economic conditions in the City of Woodburn over the 20-year planning period.This section is intended to provide the economic context for growth projections and establish a socioeconomic profile of the community.This report's national evaluation has a focus on potential changes in structural socioeconomic conditions both nationally and globally. Our localized analysis considers local growth trends, demographics,and economic performance. A. NATIONAL TRENDS After a decade of sustained economic expansion in the 2010's,the national economy has been significantly impacted in the last few years by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a sharp decrease in employment and economic and lifestyle disruptions in 2020 and 2021. During this period, workforce patterns changed as many workplaces were shut and employees transitioned to working from home, while others were laid off. Many other frontline or service workers continued to work in person as theirjobs were essential or necessary to maintain shopping and other service needs. Employment:In the first months of the pandemic,the nation lost nearly 22 million jobs,or 14%of total employment. But the recovery has been remarkable swift. As of mid-2022, employment had returned to pre-pandemic levels nationwide, and as of Spring 2023 is 2%higher than the prior peak of early 2020(Figure 1.1). FIGURE 1.01:NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT(1990—2023) National Employment Level (in Thousands) 175,000 c 165,000 155,000 145,000 E 135,000 M ur 0 125,000 Z Z7 115,000 c a, 105 E ,000 0 95 a ,000 E W 85,000 0 75,000 & OR OHO O'b y0 ,L yR y�o y4� LO LL Source:U.S.Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Unemployment Rate: The national unemployment rate spiked to nearly 15% in 2020 as many businesses paused operations or closed permanently in the first months of the pandemic. However, the unemployment rate began to decline almost immediately, and by mid-2022 had fallen back to roughly 3.5%. As of Spring 2023, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is 3.4%, the lowest levels seen in decades(Figure 1.2). CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 46 Exhibit A FIGURE 1.02:NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(1990—2023) National Unemployment Rate 16% 0 v 14% 0 a, 12 c O 10% 8% 0/1"� d wu 6% d� " 6 � 4% ...... .�(n(�� O C 2% v Z) 0% & Source:U.S.Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis Inflation: The counter story to this strong positive rebound in employment has been a rising rate of inflation coming out of the pandemic. Various stimulus measures, combined with supply shortages, led to rising prices for many consumer products, energy, and food.The rate of inflation accelerated in 2021 and began moderating towards the end of 2022,though the rate remains elevated (Figure 1.3). FIGURE 1.03:MEDIAN EARNINGS INDEXVS. INFLATION INDEX(2010—2023) Median Earnings vs. Inflation (Indexed) 150 o 140 n O 0 130 a U o;6 120 c L 110 ro LU v 100 Median Earnings Inflation(CPI) 90 ti� titi ti� ti� ti� tih ti� ti� ti� ti� ti� titi ti� ti� ti0 ti0 ti0 LO LO LO ti0 ti0 LO LO y0 y0 y0 LO Source: U.S. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers(US); Median Earnings for Full-Time Employees,Seasonally Adjusted. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 47 Exhibit A Wages:On a positive note, average household earning levels have also enjoyed growth coming out of the recession and have largely kept pace with inflation in recent years. Earnings also spiked in 2020 when government stimulus payments were added to earned wages(Figure 1.3). Industry Sector Employment:At a national level healthcare&social assistance is projected to account for the largest share of new employment growth,followed by professional&business services,and leisure& hospitality.The aging of the population is expected to drive the healthcare sector over the next few decades. FIGURE 1.04:NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR,HISTORIC AND PROJECTED Employment by Industry,Historic and Projected Empl.Change by Industry Agriculture,forestry WWWWWWWWWW�1 11111111111 2011 Mining WWIY1 11111112021 Construction WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW))))b,��rrrrrt�� 11111112031 IIIIIIII »,,,,��rrrrrtlllll��lllllllllllll�»,,,,�� Manufacturing WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW)y)yIWWWWWWWWW)y)y �rrrrr� �,) Utilities WW� Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWiiiiiiiuiuu�� 888fffffflllllllllllllll�lll!!!!Id �a11 Information wwwwwwwwwwwwwll 111111 Financial activities Professional and business services Educational services WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW�WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWp IIIIIIIIIIIII Health care and social assistance II �IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII!!lllllllllffffff(IIII �IIIIIIIIIIIIUIIII!!lllllllllfffff�tititt�f�� ......rm....ouuuu Leisure and hospitality Other services Federal government 1111112011-2021 State and local government IIlllllllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIIIlllllluu 1111112021-2031(Forecast) Nonagriculture self-employed WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW)))) IWH��1 IIIIIP°°°°°°°°" 0 5 10 15 20 25 -500 500 1,500 2,500 3,500 Millions of Jobs Thousands of Jobs SOURCE:US Bureau of Labor Statistics Recent trends and current forecasts reflect a shift from a goods economy, featuring manufacturing and natural resources,towards a service economy, which emphasizes technological innovation, research, and design. The most dramatic spending shift in the context of real estate in recent times is the growth in online shopping,which has reduced the overall need for brick-and-mortar space, especially from retailers selling physical goods. While the share of sales accounted for by e-commerce has grown at a steady pace over the last decade,the pandemic greatly accelerated this trend. In 2020, the share of sales taking place online jumped from 12% of total retail spending to 16%. It has since settled to 14.5%of spending,which is well above the pre-pandemic share(Figure 1.05). CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 48 Exhibit A FIGURE 1.05:E-COMMERCE ASA PERCENT OF TOTAL RETAIL SALES,UNITED STATES Share of I[:.•-Coiranlranerce in Total Retaill Salles 18% 16% ma 16 1 14% 0 v 12% 10% v m Laj p U 8% N F 0 6% U w 4% 2% 00, 00 00 00 00 00 00 oa o0 00 00 oti oti oti oti oti oti oti oti oti oti oti ti�� SOURCE:Retail Indicators Branch,U.S.Census Bureau,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The growth in e-commerce has accelerated a shift in storage needs from retail stores to warehouses and distribution centers. At the same time, automation is causing a consolidation within the warehousing and distribution industry, leading to increasing reliance on larger third-party operators able to make heavy investments in capital and expertise. Finally, changes in the use of electronic devices and growth in online services are causing a shift in the tech sector,from hardware manufacturing to software development. This pattern has also been reflected in the State of Oregon,with e-commerce employment increasing at the expense of brick-and-mortar retail employment.This is causing a shift in storage needs from retail stores to warehouses and distribution centers. B. MARION COUNTY ECONOMIC TRENDS Following the housing-and banking-led recession of 2008/9, Marion County experienced low to negative economic growth from 2010 to 2013. Positive GDP growth returned in 2014 and remained steady up until the negative shock of the pandemic in 2020. However, the rebound of 2021 was the strongest year of GDP growth experienced in Marion County in 20 years7. (2021 is the most recent year available for this data set.) 7 U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis(www.bls.gov/data/),March 2023 CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 49 Exhibit A FIGURE 1.06:ANNUAL CHANGE IN GDP,MARION COUNTY(2002—2021) 1,000 800 600 cu 6 000 V) O m I` I` 400 °4 o r,; r` m c LnN L6 m rrs m ° 200 6 __ o Ln c 0 -200 ;: unr'r 71 -400 ;, -600 N m �T in W r` oo rn O -1 N m �T in W r` oo rn O -1 O O O O O O O O -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 N N O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N SOURCE:U.S.Bureau of Economic Analysis Both the county and state have consistently outperformed the national employment growth rate over the last decade. During 2020, Marion County experienced a milder decrease in employment than the nation or state. Additionally, Marion County's recovery was the strongest of the three. From March 2020 to April 2021,employment growth in Marion County averaged nearly two percentage points higher than the state or nation. FIGURE 1.07:COMPARISON OF ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH RATES(2002—2022) 15% 10% 5% oN ��,�a wa�w,u i,�,A: �pawwfi '9`h��rarvn /(A°�0' im�nnwnminminrai�tii�mawinw� 0% -5% 0 Marion County -10% Oregon National -15% N N ch �T �T M W W N W W M O O .-1 N N m Lfl l0 l0 r` W W M O O -1 N O O O O O O O O O O O O r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� r� N N N N C: Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c Q ? c ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 ro ro U7 o U7 o SOURCE: U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics,Oregon Employment Department,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Annual employment growth in Marion County peaked in 2015 with roughly 5,400 jobs added. Following 2015, employment growth decelerated but remained positive, before shedding roughly 6,700 jobs in 2020 due to the pandemic.As of 2022,all the jobs lost in 2020 have been recovered,while the state had only recovered roughly 80% of the jobs lost by the end of 2022. CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 50 Exhibit A FIGURE 1.08:NET CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT,MARION COUNTY(2012-2022) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,00000 . 1 -2,000 -4,000 -6,000i` -8,000 N M in W r` 00 rn O -1 N .-i .-i ci .-i .-i .-i .-i .-i N N N O O O O O O O O O O O N N N N N N N N N N N SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department,JOHNSON ECONOMICS Marion County's employment level per month reveals that employment cyclically drops during winter months. Employment levels typically peak anywhere between May to September.This implies that seasonal employment is an important component of the county's overall economy, in particular agriculture and tourism-related businesses. The broader trend shows that the total employment level has been consistently increasing in the last decade. In 2012, the average employment level hovered around 125,000 to 135,000 and as of 2022, the employment level averaged 163,000 jobs. FIGURE 1.09:MARION COUNTY EMPLOYMENT LEVEL BY MONTH(JAN.2012-DEC.2022) 190,000 180,000 170,000 160,000 150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000 N N N M M V V V Ln Ln W W r- r- r, 00 00 Ql Ql Ql O O ci ci N N N ci ci ci N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N C C > Q - U ? t, i b 4 C C > Q - U ? i b4 C C > O a v v v f0 f6 O a v v -3 v f0 f6 O z a LL o g o g a z a N LL o g o g a z SOURCE:Oregon Employment Department,JOHNSON ECONOMICS The Marion County unemployment rate has historically been in-line with Oregon's, but higher than the nation's. Towards the latter half of the 2010's, the unemployment rate between the three geographies was largely in sync, falling from 5% in 2016 to under 4% prior to the pandemic. In early 2020, Marion County experienced an unemployment rate of roughly 12%, while the nation's unemployment rate was nearly 15%. As of 2022, Marion CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 51 Exhibit A County and Oregon have seen a slight uptick in unemployment rates following the recovery from COVID, although unemployment remains at 4.3%. FIGURE 1.10:COMPARISON OF UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TRENDS(JANUARY 2000—JULY 2022) 16% 14% Marion County ®Oregon 12% „ USA 10% om, 8% l ... 1 ,,, ino y m r � 4% ” +m 2Y2i� i rw 2% 0% 00 Ov OL O'' Ob Oh O� 01 O'b 00 y0 y> yL y'' >b yh ti� y1 >W yoi ti0 Ly tiL a� a\ a� > > > > > > > > > >a� > > > > > > > > > > > > > SOURCE:St. Louis Federal Reserve,JOHNSON ECONOMICS CITY OF WOODBURN I ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES ANALYSIS(JANUARY 2024) 52 Exhibit B j MEMORANDUM Employment Buildable Lands Inventory Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis IA E Ii:: October 31, 2023 E.0 Renata Wakeley, City of Woodburn Special Projects Director I IIw10,II',J Matt Hastie, Clinton "CJ" Doxsee, and Sun-gyo Lee, MIG JAPG cc Brendan Buckley, Johnson Economics ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- INTRODUCTION This memorandum describes the methodology and updated results of the Buildable Lands Inventory (BLI) for the City of Woodburn's Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA). The draft BLI represents the second phase of an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA)for the City. The first phase of the EOA, conducted by Johnson Economics, identified employment conditions and trends, target industries, employment land needs, and draft strategies and actions to achieve the City's economic objectives. Once the BLI has been further refined as needed by City staff and the Technical Advisory Group (TAG), it will be used to update the City's recommended economic development strategies and actions.This inventory covers land within the City's urban growth boundary (UGB), consistent with Oregon statutory and administrative rule requirements. REGULATORY BASIS The BLI is conducted consistent with the following requirements of statewide planning Goal 9 and the Goal 9 administrative rule (OAR 660-009) as they pertain to BLIs. The BLI supports an Economic Opportunities Analysis that is currently underway. 1. Economic Opportunities Analysis(OAR 660-009-0015). The Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) requires communities to identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand in the planning area based on information about national, state, regional, county or local trends; identify the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate projected employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses; include an inventory of vacant and developed lands within the planning area designated for industrial or other employment use; and estimate the types and amounts of industrial and other employment uses likely to occur in the planning area. MIG I APG Woodburn EOA— Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 2 2. Industrial and commercial development policies (OAR 660-009-0020). Cities with a population over 2,500 are required to develop commercial and industrial development policies based on the EOA. Local comprehensive plans must state the overall objectives for economic development in the planning area and identify categories or particular types of industrial and other employment uses desired by the community. Local comprehensive plans must also include policies that commit the city or county to designate an adequate number of employment sites of suitable sizes, types and locations. The plan must also include policies to provide necessary public facilities and transportation facilities for the planning area. 3. Designation of lands for industrial and commercial uses (OAR 660-009-0025). Cities and counties must adopt measures to implement policies adopted pursuant to OAR 660- 009-0020. Appropriate implementation measures include amendments to plan and zone map designations, land use regulations, public facility plans, and transportation system plans. More specifically, plans must identify the approximate number, acreage, and characteristics of sites needed to accommodate industrial and other employment uses to implement plan policies, and must designate serviceable land suitable to meet identified site needs. BLI METHODOLOGY Consistent with OAR 660-009-0015, the BLI is conducted in several steps, described below. • Step 1: Determine Land Type—This step identifies all land within the UGB as either residential, employment, or other, based on zoning and other characteristics. Because this BLI is in support of an EOA,the inventory is further refined to include only employment and mixed use areas,with residential lands excluded. • Step 2: Identify and Calculate Constraints—This step identifies development constraints and removes them from the inventory to get an accurate measurement of the amount of developable land within the UGB. • Step 3: Classify Land by Development Status—This step classifies land into categories of Vacant, Partially Vacant, Developed, and Committed, based on a series of filters using available data. • Step 4: Inventory Results—This step reports the results of the analysis in various ways, and accounts for land needed for right-of-way and other public uses to arrive at total developable net acreage within the UGB. The remainder of this memorandum addresses each of the above steps in turn. The BLI data and assumptions described in the memo have undergone extensive review, discussion, and revision with City staff, other team members, state agency staff, and members of the Technical Advisory Committee. The current draft of the memo reflects the results of that process. MIG I APG Woodburn EOA— Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 3 Step 1: Determine Land Type Land in the City of Woodburn is categorized into Residential or Employment. This classification is made primarily by zoning designation as shown in Figure 1. Exceptions were made for cases based on existing land use, property ownership, or other circumstances. Figure 2 illustrates land as either employment based or residential based, depending on the underlying zoning. Employment based land types include zoning that allows for commercial or industrial types of development and are used as the basis of generating BLI information in subsequent steps. Figure 1: Woodburn Zoning Designations ' / /i/ / IV ♦ �f 7 , q �tdws lau+r I� 77, ��""dkM {rl a t�N tut �t + / . ✓ ^If.�r �%��/ - ��r fi/F�' f� f �� a�h�fi ��i r f j!`'F„' ��✓ �d� /�7 Ef��Y” ��„,� r�Y`Y✓a _ �``y �1�,/ l Yj^7tFwpp�.,,W p rm aJ�r'L-P.�T o- UrGJy1rIr �t1" „ J' Zi it I F14� Zoning Designation Wth C.,ty (—] _a v ,r� r! ria ,.a.ai „ 7 h7 J r ra h [f l a/mV f� I i °t��r`X��ii� t`t! IF��7•,+��i 7r r � � i '- � a , i© m �f uco t-J.1, JI/ �� 'b U 1 Miles ' MIG I APG Woodburn EOA— Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 4 Figure 2: Woodburn Land Type / r � /, / l N <uw ✓ �/ r %iii�� ,,✓%i�fi/ rr / ��:, � I� `�� ,� /,` � ��/�r,.,/� �� /��`8 ��e �li /%//%//„,,,,... /�,,/,�/ "� .�✓ ;'.....?/ �'�,:�::%� r*�r r�r /r/r% a �� kr,��,� �'ir%��,J /i i,, %� � L��%%%%,.. 4 /�� l�f��//ice,�/// .�.j a '� ��✓r� r },� + f r y�� / / ,"' / 1 » Type ani.: rr f u�� Table 1 summarizes the number of tax lots and gross acreage associated with the two land types. For the purpose of this inventory, portions of tax lots that extend beyond the UGB are not factored into the estimated land capacity. Overall,there are significantly fewer employment land type tax lots compared to residential land types. However, employment land type tax lots comprise nearly half of the overall gross acreage in the City's UGB, due to their much larger average size. Table 1: Woodburn Land Type Number of Tax Lots Gross Acres' ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Employment 696 1,302.4 Residential 6,987 2,093.5 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Total 7,683 3,395.9 1 Gross acreage includes a limited number of tax lots that are partially located inside the Woodburn UGB. MIG i APG Woodburn EOA- Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 5 Step 2: Calculate Constraints As defined in OAR 660-009-005, "Development Constraints" are factors that temporarily or permanently limit or prevent the use of land for economic development. Development constraints include, but are not limited to, wetlands, environmentally sensitive areas such as habitat, slope, topography, infrastructure deficiencies, parcel fragmentation, or natural hazard areas. The constraints used for this analysis include: • FEMA Floodplain Hazards, including regulatory floodways and 100-year flood hazard areas. • Riparian Corridor Wetlands Overlay(RCWOD). • National Wetlands Inventory The portions of a site that are affected by one or more of these constraints are removed from the site area and are not considered buildable for the purposes of the inventory. Figure 3 shows the location of these constraints. Figure 3: Woodburn Development Constraints N'f'Pa✓ /i s i / /J / (%4d P j1✓ t /p p,vldll, I ,h % ��ii A�/ 1 �yjfNl,�/y��i t,k �➢N � �,. -, �.'✓ro a /��ii,/ u!y j ""�;mwolu01«i �! ✓//�/ / / „� it r//' / �� r ,/ Nil 'a� pJ � / ' �!il(i it�" ;1 i,,. p/rl �'�-/�'✓�r�Yi. /�r y ll'J r�/.f�f��i/ �if.%i /� ,,%if i�� Jlv y / / a,,,,' �,.': �" !//7/ /G / -' � .ry r�u/ivy' i / /✓fi� %O l/ / y r //i/ / �u „l% a; ��i N� �/;,(fi //a�l�/ ri,,,; / /ill/ k✓i�/lr :Gdp/r �////��/A'i li%�/ ,�,, P, //� ��/r� � �"` �/O%��p:. � O�� '�) ✓ r/ /iie. Ov/rfv f A// / l�lull%f/r% d O� � f I y �Ilw';^.. r� %✓' ��///r Uf%a/B J �;% �l r� / E rr /oG// /�///� (n` f �f; /� 0/�/' i Ni ,,,r /� �drti//� r" ll//Oii i M' ✓ / p 9 IJ ill :r%�l/�� I�l, .Bi , Jr,/ / d/.< 11 �1 :1/f ` ��O/ nuJly r i/ r ��iA. i y//y�J� I r/ f4 . i' ffo..`` �� / Lar/)��ww/f "':,, c,�r-.:1,�iib, fNroyrfr,. /i'T"' ,/i,x.1„;�� ”,ff �,� �zT�'/'/,„ � / ��/%y rfi/ » "/ D ✓�{ Nll �fl'u%/rlr If� / / "// / /a o/ /r11✓f �y `/ /� f '� �j ly ��,/�y9r'r �f/A ,r 3lfly�� / Ot�(�/ii/, /;!ilii/f/lir' "^au -PI ri l ,i/9i✓//j � 1 Ir ,» ayl'.�rp.?ir.r ...,,n7r�9 '�' r "J.� / 1 ti tif� / /his, 'r`,,. 1/4 fe 1;IRI,OYi/l7 ��p� p G,/ r'"� a Sy�`i/ °� ✓ / Arf' /ylli ( i r!/i� y y( E%, /li � �j1i%�' ^`4� �� y, ��y /� � ��f�F�t �n^a/iy^W� �%1,n r�a�r ��i✓��i11/��1/rr �1 iI, li;, / /- / ► d i i arc i"LI/flL ,r» �iGY ;, � l/pr l/J/ xlaii / ,`/,Il, fIIlAl er C'yl�" r/ yvt� / /Ir rc flr��pWdrp/r rr,�X � � �lL /�UJ fJ�i y i��/ l / FL✓;� J ♦„'�'�,, �fl �,��' / / �i /✓ r/ 1 yayB �i� N�p�� /i 14 ui i tl 1 ( / /f(f l f� �' r f ✓r � rl 9r r r 3 /✓ y, f �'W // � /(((iyI"/� � G v � /'/✓ r/','S/,"�I O /”'d9iri�l� 4/11M �r�/a �r t A ,ilii j,.. r n1i �9� rh;' � 4', �/MM /rrl//ni/mrrnrl 1T/ 1 ," �� ^ Development Constraints R..,d< c—id.,Wolds 0, 1uv hn «erir //i �7j f dprl r / Alia, l i:rnnnN dri I /9 ANN", woj-ds e /u lry: �f / O +//%�rr'P/�✓%l 5yy /�'�' J C fy Lim,it, P � � 4.5/, 1 ��,,77�� /Di 1� /✓� /i/�j/ /��% Y ' 111165 MIG I APG Woodburn EOA— Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 6 Table 2 provides a summary of the overall amount of constrained areas present within the UGB. Approximately 52 acres of employment land is constrained by FEMA floodplain hazards or the RCWOD overlay. Table 2: Woodburn Development Constraints Constrained Unconstrained Total (acres) (acres) (acres) ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Employment 51.8 1,250.6 1,302.4 Residential 97.6 1,995.9 2,093.5 ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... Total 145.4 3,250.5 3,395.9 Step 3: Classify Employment Land by Development Status Employment land within the study area was classified by development status, as follows: • "Vacant" land meets one or more of the following criteria: o Equal to or larger than % acre and not currently containing permanent improvements.2 o Equal to or larger than 5 acres where less than % acre is occupied by permanent buildings or improvements.' o Improvement value is less than $5,000 or less than 5% of the property's land value.4 • "Partially Vacant" land has an improvement value of between 5% and 40% of the land value, or is greater than one acre in size with at least% acre not improved (based on aerial photo). Unless aerial photos or other information indicate otherwise, this inventory assumes that 50% of unconstrained land is vacant based on state harbor rules..'A number of partially vacant sites have been adjusted to account for present conditions. • "Developed" land has an improvement value greater than 40% of the land value and/or does not meet the definition of vacant or partially vacant.6 In addition, several other types of land were identified as developed, including the following: o Land approved for non-employment development (i.e., for residential uses). o Land currently used for outdoor storage of equipment or merchandise. o Land that is subject to site improvement or expansion plan Table 3 presents a summary of the land development status organized by zoning inside City limits and by general commercial/industrial designation outside of City limits. Table 3:Summary of Unconstrained Employment Land Acreage by Development Status 2 Safe harbor pursuant to OAR 660-024-0050(3)(a) 3 Safe harbor pursuant to OAR 660-024-0050(3)(b) 4 Safe harbor pursuant to OAR 660-038-0120(2)(a) 5 Safe harbor pursuant to OAR 660-038-0120(2)(b) 6 Safe harbor pursuant to OAR 660-038-0120(2)(c) MIG I APG Woodburn EOA- Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 7 Vacant Partially Developed Total Vacant Commercial General (CG) 45.5 9.0 321.5 376.0 Commercial Office (CO) 4.1 2.2 32.5 38.8 Downtown Dev. & Conserv. (DDC) 0.7 0.4 14.2 15.3 Mixed Use Village (MUV) 0.5 0.2 17.8 18.5 UGB Commercial 8.7 28.0 20.5 57.3 Commercial/Mixed use Subtotal 59.5 39.9 406.6 506.0 Light Industrial (IL) 32.2 18.5 376.4 427.1 Industrial Park(IP) 2.1 37.3 151.5 190.8 UGB Industrial 23.7 0.0 102.9 126.6 Industrial Subtotal 58.1 55.8 630.7 744.6 Total 117.6 95.6 1,037.3 1,250.6 Figure 4 illustrates the development status of employment land types within the City's UGB. Figure 4: Employment Land by Development Status / I / l Develo mens Status '✓%/////////f�j%�/ 'jr/ 1! ,/l r� � //� �� i �VIVIVIVIVIVI�o v.i<7,>mj Cary c "i.,UGB WIRM 11,... Y MIG I APG Woodburn EOA- Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 8 Step 4: Inventory Results The following assumptions were used to determine the net acreage of land within the City. - 50% of all employment land identified as partially vacant. - 15% of vacant industrial employment land (Light Industrial, Industrial Park zones). - 20% of vacant commercial employment land (Commercial General, Commercial Office, Downtown Development& Conservation, Mixed Use Village zones). - 5% of additional reduction on vacant, partially vacant Commercial General zone in consideration of multi-family housing development. The 50% deduction is based on safe harbor rules in OAR 660-038-0120(2)(b),which assumes half the site is available to support additional economic development. The 15% and 20% deductions for vacant industrial and commercial employment lands are to account for potential infrastructure improvements on vacant land. Typically, infrastructure improvements include right-of-way dedications for street improvements.'The additional 5% reduction reflects the fact that residential use is allowed in the General Commercial zone and several recent developments of that type have occurred in that zone. Table 4 below provides a summary for each zone and Table 5 classifies the developable lands by size. Table 4:Net Developable Acres of Employment Land Vacant Partially Vacant Total Commercial General (CG) 34.1 4.1 38.2 Commercial Office (CO) 3.3 1.1 4.4 Downtown Development & 0.6 0.2 0.8 Conservation (DDC) Mixed Use Village (MUV) 0.4 0.1 0.5 UGB Commercial 7.0 14.0 21.0 Commercial/Mixed use Subtotal 45.3 19.5 64.8 Light Industrial (IL) 27.4 9.2 36.6 Industrial Park(IP) 1.8 18.6 20.4 UGB Industrial 20.2 0.0 20.2 Industrial Subtotal 49.4 27.9 77.3 Total 94.7 47.4 142.1 7 Note, OAR 660-024-0040(10)allows a safe harbor deduction of 25%for a residential buildable land inventory to account for streets and roads, parks, and school facilities. There is no equivalent rule in the OAR for an employment buildable land inventory. Notwithstanding, this employment buildable land inventory applies deductions because street and road improvements are anticipated for development of vacant properties.The lower amount is because, in part, parks and school facilities aren't typically built on commercial and industrial properties.Similarly,commercial and industrial properties typically require larger lot sizes and incorporate private roads or accessways, necessitating less land for public dedication. MIG I APG Woodburn EOA- Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 Exhibit B Employment Buildable Lands Inventory 9 Table 5:Remaining Inventory by Net Developable Acres Number of lots .... Share.... Commercial/Mixed use 0—5 acres 69 97.2% 5— 10 acres 2 2.8% >10 acres 0 0% Commercial/Mixed use Subtotal 71 Industrial 0—5 acres 17 73.9% 5—20 acres 6 26.1% >20 acres 0 0 Industrial Subtotal 23 Total 94 MIG I APG Woodburn EOA— Buildable Land Inventory-EXHIBIT B October 2023 -„/ a,1«Ni 6; j/ /H�// l///%%%/;, -.)i I r o+,..;�, /(0 // ��,c, ur..... ,. ✓,.�„r.. r�,.l. ,J y it W a ,'oll' INhf(Yi! III r r II fr r �f f / ✓7J1 f , r P / M I,. >!r li �f ri s r 'I rI / ✓ %/ «l„ 1r, �,(r /� Gi;, ,,/r ,,,J ' r..r� rrr. ; f�r/{ �."' ��/�� r/ ,� �! «��rr,'r u✓/w /�i fir„ , , r a(, r ( �F'�� /,G�✓.�Jlf� r / �»,.� �'� �/�Jr � //,>� f,.. r, 1 it l�1°",,. ;/��/, .� �q� /r /, 1,'�'/✓�!� %/(II r r �l // r. r, rk, ';, /r :",. r; / !n r /l/� � f l : !� /I r i�/r,/r✓ 1�I/�1� jr..l i,�Y ,; i .,riq„ ,: f/r �, /' /i �' ,/ ,/ rri r i/.. r "'r�/s� �� / / / 1 � � r, �f; � «'� ��%cJ'��Y✓�ir? � o r�l� � ��fA I U� i"� 1 i ,:, rrrrrr u E. Industrial Land Development and Employment The 202301 Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) and Economic Development Strategy provide the basis and policy direction for Woodburn's economic development efforts. $' fly ill thn it 11 tice the last F10A, adopj�d Jtl 2001the (,iiy hL �q�'ce�s U 1 �Ijajggjes such as,-. • Jleygi"aM ff9yious tiretids that saw Woodburti becoMitig ia bediroom conliml!1m, witb iresidetits commutitig 1Q2 H�g EQHllatid atid Salem aireas �"oir eMpIgyi2h�DL • Makitig ltl 122gwt g " its key. ( Q212212�latjve advatitagl� locatioti alotig jfljGIsate 5 • J�ewgmu �gyglal lairge pgj(glw gJQ1)g the 1 5 coirridoir eX(Jusjvely �"oir itidustirial uses atid. laIggiJ • Ad(�ptjotl 4' stiritiggD! pol!�'Jes to plgyetit the ire d9SJ9fla�Qfl W" itidustrial sites iti the Southwest Itidustrial J�wweserve (1�)1!11�) gvgllaay li:i collimeircial oir iresidetitial uses. Geflefally; woodbufil is eotilfflitted to ffovidifig the afid laod base fit'(It"iSafy 4) '14fact highef pilyitlg; tion 141is chatige is fleeessaiFy to fevefse fecefit 4etlds tka� Saw woodbiffil beeatilifig a bedfootil eotilffiuflity; with fesidefltS 60HIMU44fig to 441e 12.G°efdafid afid Sale"I kilreas [Qit..,." 1:,(,)f woodbum to be Competitive; it Must"lake tke fflosto its key 60HItNifati've advafItage loeatiafl alefig he 41tefqtate 5Caffidof� Woodburn is surrounded by agricultural resource land, aiid it] keepitIg Eith Statewide Platitlitig �ioal 9 �"oT ecotiomjc theft4�ofe the City cannot avoid using agricultural land to provide poi suitable itldus4ial sites Getieirally., t1ig City is coll1171111gd to 1?1QyJdJt1g flig Jtfl'TastructuTe atid latid base tiecessary to attiract hJgbg1!!!!. while etisuritig lh�! d��'Vgl Ir Iming �m]121 UtlltleS �2�'Cu]rs iti ati oirde ly �ashjoti th at i s c o oird i ti ated w i th the MY!�t Qtl 0 pqbfic services atid p(ipjjlgtjotl gj(i,yvjh,Eith lTlJtJ99Qfl (J" tt milhlii()ti, atid otheir haitils iresultitig i'IrQlll glgE�], �!]d Jtl compliatice with statewide, AMReEluenfl '�'; ifl Offlet'4)-ffletn�.flie Ck ':s ee fflofflie d&"elopfflefl (ktje(4iYe'3; ReYel'id 6Fte fftQ`iaeki alefig tke 1 5 (,effidef have beetl fesefved e)(Clusively itldusl+ial useTo etlsufe tkklt tkese ifidtk4fial sites alefig 1 5 afe used Solely �of tafgeted ifidustfial uSt'S; woodbtawil has adoptefI s4itigetit polieles to pfevetit tke fe-desigtiatiotl oitldus4ial sites 41 the Soutkwesllldus4ial ReSei:"'e oveflay (SWIR4) (Iotilffiefeial of fesidefI44al tHsts. 41 additiefl; lafge ffliflifflum pafeel SiZeS Will eflStffe fleeded liffge ifldtBtFiRl SiteS Rfe ftfeSefved� Industrial Land Designations Location of industrial lands poses more of a problem than any other use in urban areas. They are essential for the City, and in Woodburn's case,must be expanded to accommodate future needs. In general, this type of land use requires good transportation access, served preferably, but not necessarily, by both railroad and highway �'acjfitjes.. Reserving industrial sites with direct access to Interstate 5 is critical to the (74y',i economic development efforts on 1,the City. Generally, industrial land should not be located adjacent to residential areas without some type o['buffering such as 'use iti betweeti tke itidus4ial UStl afid the Iresidet,144al alreas: e44ieir green space., of a major road, or other similar buffer. Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,20214-:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 1 There are [ive foulr (4) areas that have been established for industrial use in Woodburn. They meet all of the above criteria. They are: 1. In the southeast quadrant of the City., gJQ1)g lfigbygy 99F:�; 1 In the northeast quadrant of the City; the Woodburn Industrial Park and surrounding development., Jtichldjtlg� �:2,4'the area between North Front Street and Mill Creek, north of the Woodburn High School; 4�33he southwest quadrant of the 1-5 interchange area, spS. ,flI ically jh� 5g!!tIwest Itidustrial J1eserve (SWIJ�) a1)d 11)1g!Q"I]gflge Mgflge!!]etit Airea (IMA) 54,�J I he Downtown Woodl)i,mh mostly gast/tioirtheast agross the irailiroad atid tieaT LonlnleTce "Im 4114@8 !!�irdcastle Avetigeafea. Each of these areas serves a different purpose in the City's long-range industrial development plans. The majority of the development in the Southeast Industrial area is either in the City limits or closely adjacent to itatid is plinlarily jj�gd oir Q()d 12M9�Sjtla atid associated sl?iy !M991!Qt). The MaJefity (, lafid 41 �his -S,audl till St afea is beifig used ��of sp-Tay lfflt:;Rtiofl o[ itldusl+ial wastes [I foni tke 1�1 ood p-Tocessitig Baa t., As it has been zoned industrial in the County for some time, the City proposed, and the County agreed, that it would be best to have this area in the Urban Growth Boundary so future expansion of the food processing facility on the industrial land would be controlled and regulated by the City. This industrial area could realize additional development. The tioTtheast 1'Totit StTeet J,Industrial 12,11ark area was really the beginning of Woodburn's industrial expansion in the 1970s. It has been very successful and now covers a large amount of land between the Southern Pacific Railroad and Highway 99E north of State Highway 214. llawevef While im oirtatit �"oir the ecotionly (J" Woodl)urti, almost all of the P developable land Jti this airea is cunretitly qsed 11y itidustries that irm,!Jire aireas 'Qir st()iragg (J�e� cotwactons oir sales 4'lairge eqIIJpIDgm). While the latid may 41221air t(:) be 11ti I'll 121ad these itidustiries could tiot I)e sustaitied oir exist without Jalrgg 4Igg� �'oir stolragg associated has eithef beefl Sold 4) itldus4ies tkat ititefid to locate iti Woodbum of is utidef It is expected that full build-out will be realized within the next several years. This airea is well served 1)y J u ifldusl+ial afea ofl Nawl h....14 art Stfeet floffli ('4 4he Woof#)tfffl Iligh -Sehool was seleefed ��af 1,4 sevefalfeasofls� Fifst<)[�all; it is elose to State Highway 214 atid diefe['ofe haswith'good highway access atid.� Seeofid;� a spur line from the Southern Pacific Railroad that could be developed to serve industries locating in this area. 141if d;aAn excellent buffer also exists iti tke�lgmsii Mill Creek Paw to i�)t44�ef the se airate industrial uses from the ad aeetne fiairlw residential uses. It should be P J pointed out, however, that industrial uses should not be located in or near the floodplain and extensive()i3OJ'erJtig Q1 screening must be employed by industrial uses. The Oatff: thiird industrial area, the southwest quadrant of the interchange., was selected because itis an excellent site for target industries identified in pTevious ecotionlic pl�I]flitig Not all industries desire to oir have the al)JJJ1Y ,etlt to oti rail litiesfoads. Indeed, some cannot because vibration from the to locate a!� Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,2021411:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 2 railroad upsets sensitive instruments used in some industrial processes. The key locational factor desired by �gI22t�targeted industries idetiti 14ed iti tke I°`OA is access to, and visibility from, Interstate 5. J I heft4 afeAs a iresult o�1,these 1?Jgfl1]Jtig�J�I ogs., the Southwest Itidustrial Reserve( a 11�) itidus4ial aiFeawas estaWistled along Interstate 5 atid provides the primary location for some targeted industries in Woodburn. It also affords excellent visibility for industries that wish to maintain good visibility, atid Iiigh eorpofate ifflage: The 141�tk �'ouirffi Industrial area is tke Downtown afeaWoodf)uirli. This area is the old downtown industrial center: it is, acid was the first and the original i.industrial area in Woodburn, wIlicti was 121�i11u d iti 1871 atid iti 1889,. This Industrial area is located along the 1Jtiioti Pacflic Radnad (11:&YPRR) in d.J.)owntownWoof#)ufflhe atid. Ili s!()rically qsed the railfoad lite e was utilized for transportation. This sector has historical significance when considering the path Woodburn has taken acid mau of"these itidustries. have� This ltidus4ial afea eati realized,additional development and possil)le redevelopment ifl ig,etlt Ygairs. The City "Vistles to cotitIM19 to suppoq these histodcally �Jgflj Ji atit itidustiries acid theiir cotmectioti to the irad litie itito the �'i,tatire, Itshould be noted that of the [ive oulr (4) industrial areas in Woodburn, only two, the (1), allortheast Front Street area and( ,(t e southwest qqgd1gfl1(J"the.Interstate 5 Jtitelrchatig�� and S"I IR area are available for future large-scale industrial expansion. Industrial Development Goals and Policies Goal E-1. Woodburn shall provide and maintain an adequate supply of suitable industrial sites to attract targeted firms consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 9 (Economy of the State), the recommendations of the 200 123 Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis., and the Woodburn Economic Development Strategy. Policies E-1.1 It is the policy of the City to provide for developments that, whenever possible, will allow residents of the City of Woodburn to work in Woodburn and not have to seek employment in other areas. To accomplish this, the City should encourage a healthy, diveisi�'ied, acid, sustaitiaWe job market within the City 1h1Qqgb [osteritig gl(i',Vth acid irecn,d till etl t o[ ell'12L:2MIS QLa iratig�� g�` sj. � itidustries, atid pdy cales, and enough available industrial land for industrial growth to accommodate the residential growth expected in the City. E-1.2 Industrial land should be located to take advantage of Interstate 5 access or rail transportation. E-1.3 To minimize impacts on Marion County's agricultural land base, Class I agricultural soils shall be preserved outside the Woodl)uirli ud)ati gj(i,,vjh 12Qqfldg1y (UGB). At the same time, itis important that industrial lands be located in relatively flat areas; whieh that have suitable soils and that are free from flooding Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,2021411:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 3 E-1.4 Industrial areas that are located adjacent to arterial streets or to residential areas should be controlled through site plan review and buffer zones to minimize the impact of industrial uses. E-1.5 Industries that, through their operating nature, would contribute significantly to a deterioration of the environmental quality of air, land, or water resources of the City should be Vrohil).ited....1ofl)iddeti �a,) loea�e...within the City limits. E-1.6 ddeems industrial park concept e s desirable form of industrial development. Whenever possible., industrial parkconcept will be encouraged in an attractive and functional design. Master planning of industrial areas shall be required prior to annexation of industrial land to the City. Master plans shall reserve parcels of sufficient size to meet the needs of targeted industries identified in the EOA. g g i ...which: :. to locate. E-1.7 Nonconforming industries shall be encouraged to find other areas, „ E-1.8 Industrial lands shall be protected from encroachment by commercial or other uses that will either increase the price of industrial land or e ause ggflg1g1,g traffic gefief 44afl that will interfere with t e normal industrial practices. E-1.9 The industries attracted and encouraged by the City to locate in Woodburn should generate jobs that would upgrade the skills of the local labor pool. Goal E-2. Woodburn shall reserve suitable sites in the Southwest Industalirea Rg�„��gjyg(SA lf�)for targeted industrial firms, as directed by the 202301 Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis. Policies E-2.1 :oof#*wii Shall degigflate ifldusl+ial ia �d fleaf 5 with a,....Latid wvithir the SWIR (Soot 'wes� lfld us4ial.Resefve a veflay. ...designation. katid witkiti tis desigmal4otl shall be reserved exclusively for industrial uses identified in the EOA and shall not be converted i �e map designation. to another commercialor residential � �� r� use E-2.2 A mass ef developmetitjAati shall be appfoved 1�)7 flh, e City Council shall applg g � n]istei. deveJo1?!1]g1)1 i Jiff prior to annexation to the City iinlits. The master plan shall show how streets, sanitary sewer,water and stormwater services will cati be sized and located to serve the entire SWIR area. The master plan shall show how arterial, collector, afid �local., ati street access 'will � a�tl�a�w classes ;ati be provided to each lot if land division is proposed. ,i�� a��: .. The proposed master plan shall be referred to Marion County for comment prior to consideration by the City Council. Woodhe PVolume Goals and Policies �Amended J1Ju*e: ,20214-:1(LA 2 ti.-02).Page 4 E-2.3 This SWIR master plan shall demonstrate how sites with the size and access characteristics identified in the EOA will be maintained,,; (!()fI';I4ef4W4k 14441YTHI)Ie 3; P4)jieyTfll')je a! Site ,Size Mat Mus-t be Maiiataiiirted on Speeifie Ffte�i� i;it&i (by EISSOSS(K M+iidahle [Reqttired Lot Cofteep4tal i;peeial i'Ptaftdards iaN 1(4 I'leffibeF Aere* -5114f'es' (F'11+1�w-taa+ I,fj4 Siiw* �;2 W I I 'N 7 8 4 t'llylk'JEM Rekl IAH'41 ffi,14eF P) 4 2 4 i444fktffll 98 14 4 4 7 2(�() 22 w 2�; P; i nifid-kliviSfo-11 lw+ 14 4 4,""t "t("t 7 f)eFM4tek'I i444fktffjl 12 `;.it t4 117 946 44 946 InIfIJ kIfyiSfo-11 lw+ �;2 W 4 4 4 7 k� )O 't'FM �;2 W 14 TI 7 1600 Sliall tie deyekTed '*fdi a tfI+O! Nklldi at ieast 400 effip�oyeo: �;2W14 '1'17400 104 100 6�; kand t'llylk'4M �;2 W 14 4 4 7 WO 4Viif)eFffia'Rekl IAH'41 M W4eF �;2 W: 4 4 i., )(➢() 2 4 Pkill 1j)j)F0-Y,4 �;2W14 A7 1100 2 4 `;O 100 EICFe k4 SlIall be a area; wifli at least 200 i4ri4fktai.®. 106 o:m p oyee s `;.it ''4 14 7 P(�() 4 2 4 1 nifid-kliviSfo-11 lw+ PeFffi4tekf �;2W24 '147 100 46 2�; kand tIlylk'4M 4 PeFffl4tekl W411 MEISAeF Pkill 1j)j)F0-Y,4 46 1,0"I'A i I SW 111 462 3-61 1 1 M41,4011, 601411'�" Eeonomk! GOOF(4,11,41,4011, Goals and 140fief"eS Goal 7 MaFiofl ee(fflofflie de'velopmefl A addfess thtl fffit)04affetl (A' fiffig divefse eff1pley"Ietit I)ase 'W4 f4le goalsitlelude� Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,, Jui*e: 4 a,20214-:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 5 E-3. Flfleeufat�e divefsity atid 1)a latiee <,)[ J<4) types riefk'f(le ffild itidus" Jobs), pfetiiote ['of all segfRefits o[' 15061etyl, etleoufage a sustaitlal)le 1(ocal atid fegi(oflal eeiomoiily� afid t6il()f t'(1(omoiilie to the uflique assets afid fleeds i'44he coutity atid tke City (o[ Woodbum (,'ooTdjti ate with Madotl ("outily n�a !Oitla �hLd ecotiomic developiDgD! aQ�J� �Iid p(jjcjes, �'qtqire ud)ati 1)(�qfldgjy (11Q11). l X12ajisjoti, atid otheir shaired latid use issues atid pjg1,s es.. Policies E-3.1 (4ofisistefit w4k maiFietl Coutity l4affle'Wofk Nati polieies; t')Iie City of Woodburn has conducted an Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA) consistent with the Goal 9 Rule (OAR Chapter 660, Division 9) that: (a) Inventories lands suitable for employment use by parcel size; (b) Calculates the capacity for jobs in existing Commercial and Industrial plan designations; (c) Forecasts future employment by sector; (d) Identifies industries that are likely to locate in Woodburn; (e) Determines the siting needs of targeted industries; (f) Determines whether there are existing sites within the UGB that meet site suitability criteria and are not needed for other land uses; and (g) Identifig�:�, sites outside the UGB that meet site suitability criteria if there are inadequate sites within the UGB. E-3.2 Expand the Woodburn UGB, as tieeded, to meet idetitil4ed the industrial siting needs idetitflied thmulb afl q1?dg1,gd Jo �he 2001 Woodburn EOA ajialy�g& consistent with the Statewide Planning Goals and other County guidelines adopted as part of this section. E-3.3 Review plans and implementing ordinances to ensure an adequate supply of suitable sites to meet the needs of targeted industries, as required by ORS 197.212 et. seq. E-3.4 Work with Marion County, economic development agencies, area economic development groups, and major institutions to provide information to support development of a region- wide strategy promoting a sustainable economy. F. Commercial Land Development and Employment Commercial Land Designations Commercial lands also pose difficulty in deciding their proper location because of the high traffic that is commeircial uses generated by eoiilfflefeial uses and the necessity for good transportation facilityles improvements. They also can impact quite severely on adjacent residential uses,and this mustbe considered in their location,and especially in their zoning. The commercial areas of the City should to develop at higher densities instead of as Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Jui*e: 4 a,20214-:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 6 sprawling (ij �iqjp type development. There are basically five (�)major commercial areas in Woodburn, and they should serve the City for the foreseeable future. The first commercial area that the City developed was the historic downtown. Itis located on both sides of a railroad track and destto ffoWeffls io the lreet'fft t)ast; it hwi remain sed an essential part of the City's economy. It is 41 a 4fatisitiotial stage at insert as it flo left of stifyes a s di e eefl�ef o�1�fetai I i fl g ��af Wood�)tff fl. I I aw evef; Th e d J.)owntown airea Wood:)tff fl has experienced a renaissance of new investment from the Latino community. Downtown Woodburn is becoming known throughout the state for its authentic Mexican cultural amenities, shops, and restaurants. Although some buildings st,4'1�ef [4)ni a lack (.4" maintenance and illigbI I)e outmoded i)uildiflgs, simie otheTs have been remodeled afid updated to provide a greater share of Woodburn's services in the future. The ('ily's 1-Jirl)ati Renew al District atid p1Qg1a1i1s iticlude the dowtitowti wire:, atid the ('ily bgitiitiated MATIeToUs 12awanls tau suppgjj tiia�jjtaljty Qin"titre d ow ti tow ti c oire ati d c 0III III I'M I ty The second largest'commercial area that developed in the City is the commercial strip along Highway 99E. A history of commercial strip zoning along 99E has caused many problems in the City of Woodburn. This is because this type (.4' strip development is the least efficient use of commercial land and highway 1Qad frontage. To improve the efficiency of the commercial land and enhance the appearance and vitality of this important commercial area, the City undertook the development of a plan for the hjgbay, corridor. The resulting Highway 99E Corridor Plan, adopted via OTditiatice 2492 in July. 2012, will guides future development and redevelopment in the I ljgbvyay 99E corridor. The City will cotititlue to work with property owners towards redeveloping this area in the future in line with the vision established in the Corridor Plan. By limiting the supply of vacant"green field" commercial land within the UGB, redevelopment acid uirl)atiizatioti of .strip commercial lands is more likely to oeetif. I ljgbwyay aAatia D mn��flj eoti4ol policies, which the Conridoir Plati addiresses, ccess I be shall observed when developiDgD1., atid .street improvements occur, atid the (J1y flgj;s that the ()Teggl] m !ting Ljly, Q gfljlgls atid maititaitis thi� Jilll?Qiiaili �,onrjdoir that Nsects easteirti Woodl)urtl. The third large area of commercial development in the City is the 1-5 Interchange. This contains one small shopping center, a large retail use (Wal Mart), a develojtlg 121g22!!1122 outlet mall, TestauTatits, and other highway related uses. In general, commercial uses efl it West Woodl)urth which is the west side of the freeway, should be limited to highway related interchange type uses, while on the east side, a more general commercial nature should be encouraged. fheireaiFe 00 R(NFeSflVflilRWe [4 deVelOffRefit 1064ed sObAwest (, J,',Ytfgfteff Ra,4 I,his Hand should i)eavaflalfle �'or. developlDgDled located. west atid southwest 4' F,veigiggii lWad should I)e developgd ,as a large commeircial ]retail tiode ifitegfated ani opts etlff4ef When Woodburn's population makes it ecotionlically. asil2lejusti 1�,les it. Access nlatiaga n]gj]j eoti4ol in the 1-5 interchange area is extremely important; because t1le traffic (,apg:Jjy limit 4the Jm1?1Qygd JtitgTJlal]ge III turg limits. commeircial g1gw1h inn West Woodl)Urtl� cofigestiotl is the lifflititig 1�1 Retof [I of gfewth west e i1� the 4eeway: This issue is addressed e?itefisively in the 201905� Woodburn Transportation Systems Plan. Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,20214-:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 7 The fourth commercial area is the Highway 214/211/99E "Four Comers" intersection Jtl This area has become an important commercial district within the City 1iut also serves as a Teg!Q2tial � This 4:'ouiF GofFieiFs" afea set:ves as a mofe local retail service center with Jaigaj Q1] iJti iretafleirs atid seveTal iregiotial gj(iQ,eTy jgjflelrs. This commercial district could realize more development in the future. In this area lgdevelopment ati d Jti 'iii should be intensified so as to fiot efeate afii4hef aYoJ d.Vgivgi!ia�!19 commercial strip development. The fifth commercial center serves the Nodal Development Overlay area near Parr Road, east of 1-5 atid iti the southwest on`"loo0uni. O�"ttieaireittiattlielatidi,t�,eillal? dg�119D�i9� Nodal Neigh!2�21h��2d �2ygll�y. iIA 10-acre Tectatig!11�1 suf)airea Js zotied the Nodal NeJgb!2Q1b(�Qd ,'QID!Iigjjal (NN(') Qygjl�y djstrjct� It is alotig Ijig jiQ1!h side 4' Pan- lWad atid the 1,a t side 4' a �'qatire Flvelrgj6fl lWad extetisioti atid is site his beeti reserved for neighborhood commercial uses that will serve the hit�hef elsewheire within the Nfiodal fesidetitial J)development(2yellay t1lat is highg!dg1]sJ!y jgijdetitjal atid within walking aa1]d Q,yQ]Jtilsi distance (generally one-half mile or less) of the NN(' districteetitef. The eetitefmill I)e It is to I)e,designed atid developgd iss ati ud)ati commeircial, trod with pjnlacy [orwit as pedestrians, cyclistS, atid 1)us tiratisit atid i�aeus; w4 limited.,. cowsolidated, atid shaired 41parking.'� stireet The City sliall adopt a tiew NNS" (Nodal NeitTMh )ofhood CoiilfflefeiajI)is4+41t to iffitAe4ilefit this In addition to these five major areas, there are three other minor commercial areas, two of which are set aside for office uses. One is �'outid at the S-Curve near Nolr[h Cascade Drive and State Highway 214, and one is Jocated .at the northwest quadrant of the intersection of Noir[h Settlemier Avenue and State Highway 214. To minimize the tiW"fic 'impact along State Highway 214., only low traffic generating uses such as offices and other pjQI essiotial service centers should be located along those streets. Large retail uses are not consistent with the overall plan concept for these two areas, although neighborhood-serving retail uses such as delicatessens and coffee shops are allowed. The third small commercial area will be located along Boones Ferry Road, alotig as dj�jtlaggwgy girth �wg�jjust floffli (,4 a, tributary to Q)i`Mill Creek, near the northern edge of the UGB. This two'2-acre area will serve the day-to-day retail and service needs of recent and planned residential development in the North Boones Ferry Road area. Commercial Lands Goals and Policies During the 1990s, Woodburn experienced large-scale commercial growth near Interstate 5. Although commercial development has provided jobs for many Woodburn residents, this growth has contributed to congestion at the I-5/Highway 214 Interchange, which has constrained the City's ability to attract basic industrial employment that requires 1-5 access. ,Yhet �kwe; \WRAI,akim shoidd diy:�Ofin, e "Wdili(mal �and 1FaOx" (W i,ffge 1;(!RJt1 Rttt() dt'fpeffdtfft(10HIffigad ial develapflleflt. Woodburn will encourage infill and redevelopment of existing commercial sites, and will encourage neighborhood-serving commercial developments in Nodal Development areas. Goal Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Jui*e: 4 a,2021411:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 8 F-1. Ffflcoufage ldeflti�'y. 121g122gj�. atid ire&!11�1� Ig !2Jtig �!2gqj q11)ati infill and redevelopment of existing commercial areas within the community, as well as deveJo1?!1igfl1 (J .f1i'MaI neighborhood eetitefs tiodes, to meet future conimefeial development needs, su]211211 potetitial additiotial housitig, gfld jgdq,e tTg�1,�'J� �(�flggstjoti atid ireliatice oti motoir Vehicles �"oir 1)asic commeircial services,. Policies F-1.1 The City should at all times have sufficient land to accommodate the retail needs of the City and the surrounding market area while encouraging commercial infill and redevelopment. The City presently has five major commercial areas: I fighEy ,99E, 1-5 Interchange, the downtown area, the Paff Road Nodal NgJgb12Q1b( Qd Commercial area (�uJgflg E�11 and the 214/211/99E 1 [our "corners intersection area. No new areas should be established. F-1.2 Lands for high traffic generating uses (shopping centers, malls, restaurants, etc.) should be don well improved arterials. The uses should provide the necessary �ccess matiagg!jigii! �Iid traffic control devices needed to ameliorate their impact on the arterial streets. F-1.3 Strip zoning �fld sdrip dgvgJgP122et1t should be discouraged. , as a mosutipfoduetive k,)Fni e i' (!OHIM.ems ial laod devejoftffleflt. -Stfiti,iofliflg is These soiree characterized by the use of small parcels, ofteti i"oir it tail uses,with access ni()stly gi s( Jely 1�� Dd �]r , $ $ $ ) oni a ni W e less thafl ofle qui lft'; *ith lot depths i, Jess thafl 150 0�eet afid piifeels containing multiple driveway access points, flavitIg 122!1�1] �qE�"Ice P�Ihjtlg 122g�jly Quiall 1)etweeti liudditigs atid, stireets, atid with deep �igjf)acks al)uttitig stireets.. Whenever possible, the City should encourage or require commercial developments which are designed to allow pedestrians to shop without relying on the private automobile to go from shop to shop 4 "pqE�, on C" etiviirotimetit. Therefore, aefeage site lotsdeve � lopI22��1]1 , should be encouraged to develop cotistitute ud)ati districts 2mall typtI2 developmefits that allow a one -stop ditlitig, "I]Qppjtlg, atid irecTeatioti Mid shop oppoftutiit alid, jo the extetit e(Isilfle, qui ditiotial iresidetices. Commercial developments or commercial development patterns that tle(,Q~ ssjtate fequiiFe the 121gdg1iiJtiate use of the private automobile shall be discouraged oT, 1wilated to tiot come almut iti ceirtaiti aireas 4the city. F-1.4 Architectural design of commercial areas should be attractive with a spacious feeling and enough landscaping to reduce the visual impact of large expanses of asphalt parking areas. Nodal commeircial and M.Hiixed uljse Vvillage areas should be neighborhood and pedestrian oriented, with o�J'� stireet parking to the rear or side of commercial buildings-, aU Q� stlreet piujjjtig t]gj is pj( yjded should I)e cowsolidated acid shaired. and, with 12!1!21J Jifle 41'� stireet I)JcyJgZpedestrian connections thTol,tgh �Jy �ijjpgjfflocks acid to neighboring residential areas. F-1.5 It would be of benefit to the entire City to have the Woodbum:,i Downtown 1.)eVe]oP1Dgfl1 1)esigti and Conservation District (12!2�,') �'utictjoti as an active, healthy commercial area. Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended,,J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,2021411:1(LA 21,"151111-02) e Page 9 lbstoric plgglvatioti acid comservatioti as well as. F�)d.owntown redevelopment 4' dilapidated �'acades, vacatit lots, atid 12�lhjtlg 1u21. should be emphasized, and the City should sqpp(uq gild pi(miote efieoufage property owners to form a local improvement district (1J!2) to help finance downtown improvements. The 01y 122y �IIII]d pjflgd' with qt.;rban renewal district funds may ahi() be used �() 4'ffld tAaflfled F-1.6 Commercial office and other low traffic generating commercial retail uses can be located on collectors or in close proximity to residential areas if care in architecture and site planning is exercised. The City should ensure by proper regulations that any commercial uses located close to residential areas have the proper architectural and landscaping buffer zones atid uibaii desigD �IlgEjtlg �'ur a!h��,eflcy oT ati Jtitegj�!��d gi �ganfless Imutil.dary cotidition. F-1.7 The Downtown Goals and Policies are included in Section K of thise('on1P!gbgI)sJve.Plan and are intended as general guidelines to help the City and 4s "�oodl)urti 'residents reshape the downtown into a vital part of the community. Generally, development goals are broken into four categories-; short-term goals, intermediate term goals, long-term goals, and continual goals. Whenever development is proposed within the (431) dowtitowti, these goals should be reviewed and applied as necessary so as to maintain balance and uniformity over time. Although not part of the Downtown Plan or Woodburn Comprehensive Plan, Urban Renewal funding can help to realize the goals and policies embodied in these land use plans. F-1.8 Ensure that existing commercial sites are used efficiently. Consider the potential for ireuse, Ire tefl�Llfl& gi redevelopment of existing commercial sites and modifications to zoning regulations that ifi�efisi��y IIII)mize development to attract new investment. F-1.9 Adap� a fiew NNC (Nodal J iglg��u Commercial GetieTal) Qygjl�y. zoit addistrict (a) Neaf the 14 1� Niff Road• 'IfId �he P'Nlefgfeefl Read eNeflqiofl fl(:NFeS( Mid (b) A�. he fiofdl boufldafy ('4 the t4y alefig Boofles I�effy Road; flo4h (4the Mill Cftek 44:)HBfy (2-5 ffilfeS � F I I() 'I,he Dowfltowfl Ga�eway sul) &'441� (')[ tke CG Zeflitig is an area which extends alotig �]g gastside eastwafd 4aiil Ilighway L)L)J"' dowfitawfi4' the dowtitowti. iradway. Special use provisions within the (weday st4district shall allow multi-family residential development either as a stand-alone use oras part of avertical mixed use project. The intent of allowing multi-family residential development in this area is to provide more consumers living within an area of commercial development and to provide 24-hour a day life into the eastern entrance to the downtown. F-1.10I The Highway 99E commercial corridor south of Lincoln should be redeveloped over time with more intense mixed use development. The Mixed Use Village Overlay (MUVO) Woodburn Comprehensive Plan-Volume I-Goals and Policies Amended J,41.11,1111(' Ju*e: 4 a,202,114,12(LA 21,"151111-02)e Page 10 designates an area that is intended to promote efficient use of land and urban services; create a mixture of land uses that encourages employment and housing options in close proximity to one another; restricts land extensive commercial, storage, and industrial uses; and I)ritigs almut etwoufage pedestrian-oriented development-, with 41' StTeet, paajhjtlg l)gjt]g(,otisoljdated o,w shaired-1 atid, with pgdgstriati cotitiectiotis thirougb IgIgg �Jjy Wocks atid to tiejgh!2g1jt]g jg�jdetitjal aireas� F-1.1 1.2 Iti ofdef too spuf desifed devel(opfflefit atid tke WJVO; atid ,v4;h the (4 1�the lligh'way (�'j)fFjdof j)jafj; the City ',Vill ap-ply tke mi)(ed t'jse Village ZOtle M H Stfiltegi(I fliFea Itl tke Vi(litlity ()[ tke Y Otitig Stfeet f4ef St'(11ti 0H 3 I'lle eity Shall iflitiate a legi slati've i'�ofl e efige to desigoate f tifflaiflifig la od "Vithio �he 'Ifeil deSigMited M tJ V(,) ffil d witkitl tke City lifflits as M tJ V at suell time as (4)OF i fl el udes a eet to pfiove Iiia h'wauy eol the Devel(op+11eflt 101prove"Iefit 14(ogfam (DSTIP)� Fl 14 Pfopefty (owtiefs witkiti tke i"NO atid witkitl tke City lifflits may petitiotl tke City to iflitiate a legislative i'r(ofle efige to WAL �'(of�heif ffiopt+ty at afly tiffle. Inlod outside ("i ty I i M i ts W i tk i ti tk e M tJ VO slial 11:)e Zotl ed laiJ V upotl atl ti e)('144 otl� F-1.124 The City ititetids will cotititige to woirk to beautify the Highway 99E commercial corridor through measures such as replacement of overhead power and telephone lines with underground utilities, enhancing street lighting in the corridor, providing for non- conforming sign amortization, ireplacitig u�,i,!112 tigbj sidewalk with latidscape stnj?�u, providing enhanced streetscape furnishings in key pedestrian areas, and establishing a storefront improvement program. The City will explore options to fund such improvements, including its Capital Improvement Program ( I P')', formation of a Local Improvement District(1 11?), and Urban Renewal funds, and it) milimbip gfld vYitll �!11212��11 [10171 0120T. Z'anyet men ........................... Goat 1 2 F"tillatice the u�liiy QA' �Jjy ,vg1j�'(1rce atid supp11 k162PMfll a2L it'dustiries, Policies 1 11 The 01y shall sul2pg1l Q2r as �hjlled, veirsatile woirk�'oirce that meets the tieeds 4'cunretit aiid ffQW9CtjVe enij?]Qygj� tlij(�jjgb (,00irdjtiatjoti With atid si,q)j?Qjj(J'the local schools atid (,gfleges. 1 12 The 01y shall eticoulrM l,atqatjotial itis titUtl0flS. vocatiotial tiraltilng, atid woirVoirce, deve]oj?!jigjqjQ !jiget the reeds (A"ire tonal itidustries, Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended J,41.11,1111(' Jui*e: 4a,202,114,12(LA 21,"151111-02)e Page 11 1 13 Jhe City....sa]I p1joritize the deveJoj?!jlgjqgfld i ill (Jtie(,essary itffirastructuire to. �!11212gjj� g�ta W ishnietit atid gjgEfli g� Ji 122ja�gj nigdj ca] cetiteir. I 2A The Cily sh a.. p1gvide oir a iratigg g�`I ticetitive Ig jtidustrjes� G. Growth Management and Annexation Growth Management W00dl`)Uffl has It"Iffled 4ioffl 1*411 its SH(I(It"iSt"i afid Mistakes dufifig+;he last 20...yeafs siflee tke woodbuiFll C(off1prelletisiVe Nall WRS ill P81 WOOdIRWH IIHS HSed the ffeeess eI I eetively to tiffsofe &It flew devel(opmefit has adeflHate levels 14 aa pefied (,4 fat�d gfiow�h� Most imt)(of:Mfi+4y; Woodburn is proud of its ability to accommodate new residents from diverse economic, social, and ethnic backgrounds 1�y i i s eWoMilg � YgE�giy oJ housitig �I]Qjcg$ atid adequate levels o�'pqf lic �'acjl t e, atid services. aire availal)le,. As p-aft o[, its pefi(odie eview JAawlitig pfeeess; woodl)ufll itleorp-ofated gfowtk fflaflageffitifit ffleastfftlS too iflefease e44(liefley 4 .laod use afid impi-o-o'ed livabijity; Woodburn is committed to: ■ Reserving land near Interstate 5 for basic atid local employment, rather than freeway oriented commercial development. Woodburn has adopted stringent master planning standards for i'Industrial development, that ensures efficient land use and retention of scarce industrial sites in the Southwest Industrial Reserve (oveflay (SWIR) area. ■ Integrating its stream corridors and wetlands into the design of neighborhoods and commercial developments. Accordingly, Woodburn has inventoried its locally significant wetlands and riparian corridors, and protected them from conflicting use, by applying the "safe harbor provisions" of the Statewide Platitlitisi, Goal 5 admitiist1rative rule QQ21) awIld �,otitjtiues to woirk towaird �'ull 1)u1ld: out 4'the Mill Ureek Gireetiway tirail syqgll] IQ plovide multi modal cotme(IlV11Y gj2jj()ws arid expj]dgd gIggl] spg �"oir iresjdetits. Using the master planning process as a pre-cotiditi(oti ir„�WL$Jte to annexation or development in Nodal Development Overlay and SWIR areas, to ensure that land is used more wisely and more efficiently. d2im efforts tonia Woodburti LJGB. ................................................................................. .................................. Fzk+a: F(owaf ds tki s ell d; woodbuiFll has Woodburn Comprehensive Plan— (LAe I—Goals and Policies Amended J41.11,11J *e: 4 a20242 21,'1151111-02)e Page 12 me<,)Tefated iiiipewtatit pelieiei atid t�uidelities [outid iti the Mafieti Coutity Ufl)ati Gfewth 11k Xotied latid to pfevide the opp-oftutlity [4 housifig 4,) develop aIt ovef 10 utilts prof.. flet �)uildable aef e ('2,uflits pef gfoss a(`fe)tiodef eleaf afid iA),*44ve stafldaf dsz 11h Made am efl diilefl ts to thtl woof#)uffl (4difIfflet'; W, diS(ItHist'd ifl. seetiotl 1); llousitlgatid 1111111 Adopted mitiimum detisity statidafds tkat etistife tkat kletual developmetit ocetifs at 90511113 of ts H16ftl 4the allowable defisity 41 eaek (44 , fesidefI44aj ofliflg Growth Management Goals and Policies Goal G-I.I The City's goal is to manage growth in a balanced, orderly., and efficient manner, consistent with the City's coordinated population projection. G 12 The (Ity's mW �s to have (1evelop!,ngfl!s constnict or flind strect �mpLQ2ygrni:,ntl;, and other pjQp(aItjotial shaire 4JI]11?1(aVenletlts �'olr the 1?1112fic, to la seri the cost 4'latid developjDflj to the 01y aaIid staNfize the taxvml !2!IIkI tai latidowtien, Jti the cotitext 4' Ballot, Mie asulres 5 (1990) gfld �O (I 997), Policies G-1.1 Woodburn will assure that all expansion areas of the City are served by public facilities and services with adequate capacity Ig �!1121121rt �'utulre developI22a�flj. Consideration of proposals that vary from City capacity standards and facility master plans shall include mitigating measures determined to be appropriate the Public Works Department atid the IC iratisit I)ePairtmetit. Other public service providers such as the "Qoodl)urg School District and "�oodl)urti Fire District shall also address capacity considerations. G-1.2 Woodburn will encourage the optimum use of the residential land inventory Iuy providing opportunities for infill lots, intensifying development along transit corridors, and applyitigieatioti o[`minimum densities. G-1.3 The City shall provide an interconnected street system to improve the efficiency of movement by providing direct linkages between origins and destinations atid to shiritik existitia atid iva vaiai.. fla,E Q2M,s exce titla Iflocks that the latid use ma 12 12, iia sjgflaj�us itidustrial wheTe &�s ti( TegqlIg al stTeet extetisiotl oT tiew stTeeL oT(I)) itidustrial p�j�,el mitiinium aireas,tiecessitated I)y law oir "Qood)uirti CompjgliDJve Plati itidustrial gQ�J� gfld policies, would I)e Q oiii pjgI22 J s ed. G-1.4 The City shall assure the provision of major streets as shown in the Transportation Systems Plan (TSE). The City shall hold development accountable for streets within and abutting Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended J,41.11,1111(' Jui*e: 4 a,202,114,12(LA 21,"151111-02)e Page 13 , P the development [)y Iming dgYgjQP1Dg!)!s u gmdg fl(m�(m[Qjgjjflg stTeets atid cotistruct. extetided atid tiew stireets atid 41,� stireet 1)jcy�]��Zp&�stjati �'acjljtjes. In addition,then he policy of the City is to emphasize development outward in successive steps and phases that avoid unnecessary gaps in the development and improvement of tke streets, oT itati otherwise, ititeTcotmected Stireet syijgjD.. G-1.5 The City's policy is to consider the Capital Improvement Program (CIP) when investing public funds or leveraging private investment. G-1.6 The City shall encourage high standards of design and flexibility that are enabled by the pljiflgd qflit deVeJoj?!j]gj)j(PUD) afie oirditlatice. G-1.7 The City's policy is to accommodate industrial and commercial growth consistent with the 20230 1 Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA). G-1.8 Woodburn's policy is to diversify the local economy. Woodburn seeks to diversify the local economy so that the community will prosper and can weather swings in the business cycle, seasonal fluctuations, and other economic variables. The intent is to provide a broad spectrum of commercial and industrial enterprises. The variety of enterprises will not only provide insulation from negative business factors, but a choice in employment opportunities that in turn allows for the diversification in income types. G-1.9 To ensure that growth is orderly and efficient, the City shall phase the needed public services in accordance with the expected growth. Extensions of the existing public services should be in accordance with the facility master plans and Public Facility Plan in this Comprehensive Plan. G-1.10 Woodburn will ensure that land is efficiently used within the Urban Growth Boundary (UGB)by requiring master development plans for land within Nodal Development Overlay and Southwest Industrial Reserve ovef lay designations. Master plans shall address street connectivity and access, efficient provision of public facilities, and retention of large parcels for their intended purpose(s). G-1.11 The City shall pay for public facilities with system development charges (�j?(,'s) from anticipated growth. G-1.12 The County shall retain responsibility for regulating land use on lands within the urban growth area(unincorporated land inside the UGB)until such lands are annexed by the City. The urban growth area has been identified by the City as urbanizable and is considered to be available, over time, for urban development. G-1.13 The City and County shall maintain a process providing for an exchange of information and recommendations relating to land use proposals in the urban growth area. Land use activities being considered within the urban growth area by the County shall be forwarded bYhe CountyheCtyoommendrendationThe City shall fespefid itkitl twetity days; utiless tke City fequests atid tke Coutity gfatits ati Woodburn Comprehensive Plan-Volume I-Goals and Policies Amended J,41.11,1111(' Jui*e: 4 a,202,114,12(LA 21,'1151111-02)e Page 14 G-1.14 All land use actions within the urban growth area and outside the City limits shall be consistent with the City's Comprehensive Plan and the County's land use regulations. G-1.15 In order to promote consistency and coordination between the City and County, both the City and County shall review and approve amendments to the City's Comprehensive Plan M�ia which apply to the portion of the urban growth area outside the City limits. Such changes shall be considered first by the City and referred to the County prior to final adoption. If the County approves a proposed amendment to the City's Pplan Mala, the change shall be adopted by ordinance, and made a part of the County's plan. G-1.16 The area outside the urban growth boundary, including t e afly areas within the Urban Reserve Area(URA) iia �uratuQaa„ shall be maintained in rural and resource uses consistent with the Statewide Land Use Planning Goals auiatul alld,2aa➢fl aµgax�] 1�g!jj]djjy axiaaaa waG:DlCa aaaiila„: aaaaasauxaatio . G-1.17 The City and County shall strive to enhance the livability and promote logical and orderly development of the urban growth area in a cost effective manner. The County shall not allow urban uses within the Urban Growth Boundary prior to annexation to the City unless agreed to in writing by the City. City sewer and water facilities shall not be extended beyond the City limits, except as may be agreed to in writing by the City and the property owner and the owner consents to annex. The City shall be responsible for preparing the public facilities plan. G-1.18 Conversion of land within the boundary to urban uses shall be based on a consideration of: (a) Orderly, economic provision for public facilities and services; (b) Availability of sufficient land for the various uses to ensure choices in the marketplace; (c) LCDC Goals; (d) Further development of vacant and under utilized residential land within the City's buildable land inventory before annexing additional territory for conversion to residential use at urban densities; and (e) Applicable provisions of the Marion County and City Comprehensive Plans. i... 14 WOOElWffit iS (:.OHIMit47ed to...woxkifig wit ..Maxi(ofi 4:)UNy to u a fffiWe 1,0 �`af .. aaaaai ()aµ (OaaaadyReiaaa ua °(anapaa(aaaaµ aaa1 ;aµ(axat The ° ty Shall aoruul .la . . iaan'al qtwh &It the ffivaata%...aaan(4)f effil aa(.''q'aaaroara'2, ufl4w...pef gfoss ffilft'; ( 09EflSfrwtef4 with than City's hkaiising a ee(hi sa6asflya"ia” Ta.ai effii aien�;�r..-.wu�.sffldsa:a"(� a'�a��(elid^(6 t'S,...�.h�" s�°�effl e (��^(6�.,4,Y 144 w .w�. H&OV ➢aousifi a haat wal..li)e i,�ofled aafid aall(�awed ofid f eieaf afid (4)Jt'(441Vt1....9i ffid affis �)y the City. 141°aµ(aaagh as Cool I)iaaaataQaaa Qa[uaa[i11;as"`devel(opmetlt..,.w"ef6ea(l "I use,...devel(opmetlta(((d platavisi(ofl �(of s4ilaallea....kotsiia �es aanal...aa gftla4e Vat"laat"ty i,4�.yo&aasifi TM tyf)t's, .(;"aoa#)&fffka ffio z.➢deg+ tk e op-p(of tutl aty..,[(of t atp+ivateseet(of to aa("'hiev n..at la"aarwt 9 d-Wt hili y t014 w fff gigOSS 1)HiJF:'1's°a1a1.n, aa(f,.ae (aa�'i'y�an r '(atan'eted flkltbafk�aj.....aaa"eaa��;,a ..k1od l.a'�aod l�.a*'(,*ma.�a,d '��i4 k�aa'ks a a m(�';.y(a(:�lr�w....aana!I �ta" a ai: •Qa"ay....a �� qty LA 21,'1151111-02)Goals and Policies WoodburnAmended J�Pra el e: Plan 202,114,12(LA I .Page 15 felit�ieus ftlslituliefl,4 � o� sitigoghiti[ll atiddeveleet e<,)tffltri aritieutiitribut flo tiew latide(,)tisump4A ,)ti; itlefeasitig tke defisity ffleasuft'fflt'tlt G-1.1920 Iti 2015, Woodburn designated,s and established,s two 20-year UGB Expansion Limitations as depicted in Figure G-1.20, whichi�,,vgs adopted as part of the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan update via Oirditiatice No. 2530 iti 12ecenil)eT 2015,. For 20 years from the date the UGB amendment decision is acknowledged, the City shall not seek, consider, or approve an expansion of the Woodburn UGB in the following areas: of the portion of Butteville Road NE, as depicted in Figure G-1.20. Northeast of Highway 99E located at the northeast edge of the existing UGB, as depicted in Figure G-1.20: Figure G-1.20 A, 0 Q.J X _1J A W, ca ca CDJ Urban Reserve C--iU�q Exp®ns o, IIA-1-1 JG9 Exp"',-, R-dtW VCR.E pan To further the mutual objective of the City and County to enhance livability and promote logical and orderly development in a cost effective manner, both UGB Expansion Limitations shall function as boundaries that shall not be crossed by any UGB expansion for a period of 20 years. G-1.20) it 2015, t4he City and Marion County have jointly agreed to establish an Urban Reserve Area (URA) consistent with state law. The URA is designated and established west and south of Parr Road as specified in Figure G-1.21, which is adopted as part of the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan. Designating a URA achieves the following objectives: (uuA) It identifies appropriate lands to be reserved for eventual inclusion in the UGB; (12'1 3) In conjunction with Marion County's adoption of policies and regulations for the URA, it protects this land from development patterns that would impede long-term urbanization; and (u,C) it provides more certainty for jurisdictions, service districts and property owners Woodburn Comprehensive Plan—Volume I—Goals and Policies Amended J,41.1,111II! Jui*e: 4 a,202,114,12(LA 21,'1151111-02)e Page 16 to undertake longer-term planning for public facilities and services such as transportation, sewer and water, schools and parks. '..Figure G-1.21 � i it i i Urban Reserve — _ „� Urdan Reserve p a caalFldaafd ) ill*�i°' asu�ubd=� .ri'.isiefiic�.. fiid�� lafifle��...&IfI lllriia°ii�iViu�iO...i� n�i aity s G-1.2ll As ..-.wuiieei ied in the Ma iim...-Goiinty Vueiimew(oli Wan; them... Coiinty's iiieiu iffli iffy. efR aida "Iefi� iiaiid use i° s uai�i...ielA aeed� by tke i�uofe&4� ailed employment i � m r �flee ds urn' �. forecasts an ) udal iaia � aauiyuiu.... 4e su4abiii.ty aflalysis i,u"e....found in the 200.1.. Woodburn EOA. G-1.224 Woodburn will consider residential and commercial redevelopment and infill potential for purposes of calculating UGB capacity, prior to expanding the UGB. Woodburn will also constrain the supply of commercial land to encourage redevelopment along Highway 214 west of Interstate 5, and along Highway 99W. G-1.235 Woodburn has identified two areas for mixed-use development — Downtown Woodburn and the Nodal Development District along Parr Road. The UGB Justification Report includeds specific estimates of the number of new housing units and commercial jobs that can be accommodated in these overlay districts. G-1.246 iaia&h)"u:ui"ii iti "etids tke UGB eXJ)flt1S4)f1....Rfea 1010-Wfl...Hs tke soutk-vvesIfidusl ial lZese4v e i o4il f"isifi I.'d)() aa(° *� , l aeated...*W4 i4 1 i:m7eville...Read d afid fio4k (,4..12aff. ROM oda i)e USed iiaf i-ffgef ifldu:us4iiai u:usefs....-Consistent with other provisions contained in the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan, all land within the Southwest Industrial Reserve shall be reserved exclusively for industrial uses identified in the EOA and shall not be converted to another commercial or residential plan designation. Specific lot size standards shall be established limiting the size and number of future lots for these properties. sir LA 21,'1151111-02)Goals and Policies WoodburnAmended idPr1 el e: Plan 202,114,12(LA Ia Page 17 G-1.257 Woodburn recognizes that residential uses present the most adverse conflicts with both agricultural practices and with many industrial uses, especially those that use trucks as part of their regular business practice. Woodburn and Marion County recognize that the land to the west of Butteville Road NE is a critical part of the irreplaceable land base of the region's agricultural industry. Therefore, to minimize conflicts between urban and agricultural uses and to minimize conflicts between the industrial uses in Southwest Industrial Reserve and other urban uses, the City and County will: • Ensure that the design of any improvements to the portion of Butteville Road NE serving the Southwest Industrial Reserve not encourage any urban traffic unrelated to the industrial use in the immediate area and unrelated to agricultural uses west of Butteville Road. • As industrial development is planned for in the Southwest Industrial Reserve consideration shall be given to methods that mitigate impacts from development and adjacent agricultural activities. This can include buffers or increased setbacks along Butteville Road,provided that any buffers needed to reduce conflicts between the industrial uses and agricultural activity west of Butteville Road NE are located inside the UGB. G ll,..2 Te Oly mull ...co llalmirate with ireguoltial ��ditl��ulaol��l��olt1 i1 ,1rd°�1"�!u., ut)(Juudiitlg .QQQT., 1o� V1r ,o tlito l,....atiid i,wdate as til�'�:dd, � � ooir jtiate �. a0lgh to V1r aititaitlitig � r ulatjQ:DtiI....atiid��: mopNlipy.ili the 1 5 i1iteIr hatigg 11Igg,. G 127 The O y. will cololiµdlutiate with o their gggtid°les to o:°twouulragg...u1]11?1(o glllet1t (j, dila iegua11ial piraii wpolq!Jgji �.y IgI21.., ilid ludi1i ^ highvt/w2 lail.., atidd iii 1o2 41d d omimodate i"l wid etipiwll....atid, e1T11?Joly1Dg 1p giµonvib g;xilg !gdl u11 he (J y.: y..Eill e]o11a11]g1) ��l1111, 1 a1o111pd�:: Ja. hdkto lir i1TI to1 y piµQ,,i��. 1�d1411t 41 y pd�"111 d��1t�.� d,� Aiµ4�1t"wi�. pp Y)e„ i�esollu.utio:1t1 No: 2213 it Ju.utie 20 13 Annexation Goals and Policies Goal G-2. The goal is to guide the shape and geographic area of the City within the urban growth boundary so the City limits: (a) Define a compact service area for the City; (b) Reflect a cohesive land area that is all contained within the City; and (c) Provide the opportunity for growth in keeping with the City's goals and capacity to serve urban development. Policies iy LA 21,'1151111-02)Goals and Policies WoodburnAmended JoPr1 el e: Plan 202,114,12(LA I .Page 18 G-2.1 For each proposed expansion of the City, Woodburn shall assess the proposal's conformance with the City's plans, and facility capacity and assess its impact on the community. G-2.2 Woodburn will achieve more efficient utilization of land within the City by: (a) Incorporating all of the territory within the City limits that will be of benefit to the City. (b) Providing an opportunity for the urban in-fill of vacant and under utilized property. (c) Fostering an efficient pattern of urban development in the City, maximizing the use of existing City facilities and services, and balancing the costs of City services among all benefited residents and development. (d) Requiring master development plans for land within Nodal Development Overlay or Southwest Industrial Reserve.avefiay designations prior to annexation. Master plans shall address street connectivity and access, efficient provision of public facilities, and retention of large parcels for their intended purpose(s). G-2.3 Woodburn will use annexation as a tool to guide: (a) The direction, shape and pattern of urban development; (b) Smooth transitions in the physical identity and the development pattern of the community; and (c) The efficient use and extension of City facilities and services. iy LA 21,'1151111-02)Goals and Policies WoodburnAmended J�Pr1 el e: Plan 202,114,12(LA I .Page 19 II iretiroducdoire The City of Woodburn Development Code (WDO) does not include specific approval criteria for legislative amendments, beyond initiation per WDO 4.01.09, processing, and notification requirements. However, per state law, amendments to a Comprehensive Plan, including the adoption of implementing documents such as an Economic Opportunities Analysis (ECA), are required to be consistent with: • Statewide Planning Goals • Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) • Woodburn Comprehensive Plan goals and policies The findings for adoption of the ECA and associated Comprehensive Plan amendments address these same criteria. The present version of the Comprehensive Plan was last amended through Legislative Amendment LA 21-02 as Ordinance No. 2603 on June 13, 2022 (Goals and Policies relating to "Middle Housing"). Statewiide Planning Goals There are a total of 19 Statewide Planning Goals. Staff finds Statewide Planning Goals 3 through 8, 10 through 13, and 15 through 19 are not applicable to the adoption of the EOA and identified updates to the Woodburn Comprehensive Plan goals and policies. The ECA does not contain regulations that pertain to these goals and is not proposing changes to existing associated regulations. Applicable goals include Goal 1 (Citizen Involvement), Goal 2 (Land Use Planning), Goal 9 (Economic Development), and Goal 14 (Urbanization). Of these, Goal 9, titled Economic Development, is the primary goal of consideration in review of this proposal.The fundamental purpose of Goal 9 is to make sure that a local government plans for economic development. This proposal is for the adoption of the Economic Opportunities Analysis (ECA), which contains information pertaining to Goal 9 and for findings in support of adoption. Rules that implement Goal 9 are described in Chapter 660, Division 9 of the Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) and EOAs are specifically mentioned in OAR 660-009-0015.The proposed ECA was produced to meet the requirements of Goal 9 and all implementing administrative rules. The ECA provides a factual basis for updating Woodburn Comprehensive Plan Sections E (Industrial Land Development and Employment), F (Commercial Land Development and Employment), & G (Growth Management and Annexation). The City of Woodburn created these existing policies in concert with the adoption of the previous ECA and other economic-related planning efforts. The proposed amendments establish a new 20-year forecast period and LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 1 of 16 include new and modified policies for the City to support economic growth, particularly for identified target industries. Goal 1 -- Qdzen Involvement Statewide Planning Goal 1 requires cities to involve community members in planning processes and decisions. The City and its consultants have done this in a variety of ways as part of the planning process. - Advisory Group. The City formed and conducted meetings with a technical advisory group (TAG) for the ECA. The committee met three times to review materials and provide direction at key milestones. - Planning Commission and City Council Meetings. Staff provided for public meetings before the Planning Commission and City Council to present information. The City followed State and Local public notice procedures to inform members of the public about these meetings. - Notification to the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD). Staff provided notice to DLCD of the proposed Comprehensive Plan amendments on October 4, 2023, in compliance with OAR 660-018-0020 and notified affected government agencies in conformance with WDO 4.01.14D. - Online Access to Draft Materials. Staff made draft copies of the ECA, BLI, and the proposed Comprehensive Plan Economic Goals and Policies available on the City's website for public review and comment on October 12, 2023. Based on the above findings, the ECA is consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 1. Goal 2 -- Lard Use Planning Goal 2 requires each local government in Oregon to establish a land use planning process and policy framework as a basis for all decisions and actions related to use of land and to assure an adequate factual base for such decisions and actions. Goal 2 also includes requirements for coordination with other jurisdictions and government agencies, requires that plans include implementation measures, and that plans be reviewed periodically and amended as needed. The City last updated and adopted its Economic Opportunities Analysis (ECA)via Ordinance No. 2391 on October 31, 2005. To ensure that the City has an accurate measure for its 20-year employment land needs, the City Council initiated a Type V legislative process to review the City's draft ECA, BLI, and correlating updates to the Comprehensive Plan Goals and Policies. The City formed and conducted meetings with a technical advisory group (TAG) during its preparation of a new ECA. The committee met three times to review materials and provide direction at key milestones. Included on that committee were representatives from Marion County, Business Oregon, staff from the Oregon State Department of Land Conservation and Development, local elected officials and representatives from local employment industries. One purpose of the committee meetings was to ensure that there was a forum for affected LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 2 of 16 government agencies to express concerns with proposed updates to the plan and provide the City with the opportunity to consider and accommodate modifications to the plan during the preparation phase of work. These meetings also provided a venue for coordination discussions with Marion County staff as needed. The proposed ECA was finalized based on quantitative data and qualitative information based on national, state, regional, and local economic trends required by OAR 660-009-0015. The proposed ECA is now being reviewed for adoption under the City's Type V legislative procedure as outlined in the Woodburn Development Ordinance. That procedure includes the City undertaking the following steps, which includes additional opportunities for review and comment by citizens and affected governmental units: - The City notified affected government agencies in conformance with WDO 4.01.14.D. on October 19, 2023, and published notice of both the Planning Commission and City Council hearings in the Woodburn Independent newspaper on November 1, 2023. - Public work sessions with both Planning Commission on October 12, 2023, and City Council on October 23, 2023; - The Planning Commission hearing scheduled for November 9, 2023; - The City Council hearing is tentatively scheduled for December 9, 2023; - On October 4, 2023, staff sent a Post-Acknowledgement Plan Amendment (PAPA) to the Department of Land Conversation and Development (DLCD) in compliance with OAR 660-018-0020. Based on the above findings, the ECA is consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 2. Goal 9 -- Economy Goal 9 requires the City to maintain and plan for an adequate land supply to accommodate at least 20 years of future growth, ensuring residents have adequate opportunities for a variety of economic activities vital to the health, welfare, and prosperity of Oregon. Comprehensive plans are required to include an analysis of a community's economy related to state and national trends, an assessment of economic development potential, an inventory of employment land, policies for economic opportunities based on that analysis, an adequate supply of a variety of sites supporting employment consistent with identified policies, and designated employment sites and adjacent sites that include compatible uses. The City has conducted an ECA and is proposing to adopt the findings of the ECA, along with an update to the economic development sections of its Comprehensive Plan, which incorporates updated implementing policies. The ECA describes employment, workforce, and other demographic and economic trends at the local, regional, state, and national level that will influence the Woodburn economy in the coming years. The ECA also identifies a set of target industries for Woodburn that reflect local and regional economic goals, local and regional LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 3 of 16 locational advantages, the size of Woodburn, its relation to surrounding population and employment, and other factors. The ECA includes the City's buildable lands inventory (BLI) for employment within the Woodburn urban growth boundary (UGB). The BLI is required by Goal 9 to ensure that current use designations provide an adequate short- and long-term land supply for employment development for meeting existing needs and those of projected growth. It analyzes existing development patterns and intensity, land and development values, existing land use designations and zoning, and building constraints to determine where there is vacant land and/or land that has a potential to redevelop within the planning horizon and compares the existing supply of land to emerging trends and indicators for future estimates of demand. The ECA includes the following overall findings and conclusions: Growing Economy. The City of Woodburn is located in a centralized location between the Portland and Salem metro areas. This provides Woodburn with a locational advantage for people to live while working or doing business in those regional market areas. Woodburn's proximity to the I-5 freeway and other highways serving the mid-valley provides a central point of connectivity for local businesses and the larger market areas. Further, the city has a sizeable regional labor market to support growing businesses and attract new industries. Finally, the City has established economic development tools in place to support employment growth. These include Enterprise Zones, Opportunity Zones, and Urban Renewal Area incentives. Current Employment and Projected Employment Growth. Woodburn is home to an estimated 11,965 jobs.The largest employment sectors include retail trade, health care and social assistance, agriculture support industries, leisure and hospitality, and manufacturing. Employment is forecasted to grow at approximately 2.3% annually, resulting in roughly 6,830 additional jobs by 2043.The greatest number of jobs are anticipated to be in existing employment sectors along with transportation and warehousing, construction, and education. From a generalized perspective, the 20-year demand for new employment will require more industrial land (-73%) than commercial land (-27%). Expanding and Target Industries. The city has current advantages in several key industries, including manufacturing of a wide range of product types, construction, retail, shipping and transportation, and tourism. The ECA identifies a range of additional potential target industries for employment growth.These include transportation/warehousing/utilities, health care and social assistance, and education. Supporting growth in a range of industries will contribute to a diverse and sustainable employment and tax base for the future and be more resilient to economic impacts on traditional local industries. The EOA methodology uses specific target "industries" (by the North American Industry Classification System or NAICS) rather than use types, and it ties job growth projections to those specific industries. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 4 of 16 Employment Land Need.The ECA analysis finds that the forecasted 20-year job growth by industry translates to a need for 529 total net acres (632 gross acres) of land zoned for employment uses. The distribution of land demand between commercial uses (office, institutional, retail) and industrial uses (industrial, warehouse, business park) leans toward industrial (73% industrial versus 27% commercial). A range of site sizes will also be needed ranging from small to large to accommodate the projected business expansion. Different commercial and industrial uses have different site requirements driven by the specific nature of their business operations, firm size, location and infrastructure requirements, and other factors. The BLI of employment lands completed in conjunction with the EOA found a total of 143 net buildable acres in commercial and industrial zones within the City's existing UGB. The projected 20-year need for commercial land trails the supply significantly, with an estimated 65 net acres of commercial land remaining to meet a projected need of 171 gross acres, indicating a deficit of 107 gross acres. Similarly, there is only a projected supply of 77 net acres of industrial land to meet the forecasted need of 461 gross acres, indicating a deficit of 273 gross acres. The largest remaining contiguous development sites in Woodburn are also all under 20 acres in size, with most being 5 acres or less. Additionally, roughly one third of the remaining buildable land is found in partially vacant parcels where the decision to add further development is subject to the willingness of current property owners and/or occupying tenants to redevelop. Based on the findings above, the ECA and Comprehensive Plan update are consistent with Oregon Statewide Planning Goal 9. Goal 1.4 __ Urbanizat-ion Goal 14 provides for orderly development in Woodburn. The ECA examines the potential development of employment lands within the Woodburn UGB that can meet the development opportunities identified in the ECA. The ECA provides an analysis of 20-year land needs for employment growth, and pursuant to the criteria found in OAR 660-009-015 for ensuring orderly urbanization, the ECA documents an insufficient supply of land. A subsequent planning effort will be conducted based on the EOA findings that will seek to: (i) assess the capacity of the current UGB area and the Urban Reserve Area, to meet the 20-year land needs for employment growth; (ii) identify potential updates to the WDO; (iii) identify property for possible rezoning or zone change; (iv) and/or expand the UGB to accommodate the identified need, consistent with the requirements of Goal 14, as applicable. iregoire Adireiireistiradve Rules Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) 660-009-0015 guide preparation of EOAs for cities in Oregon. Following is a summary of consistency with those rules. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 5 of 16 (1) Review of National, State, Regional, County and Local Trends. The economic opportunities analysis must identify the major categories of industrial or other employment uses that could reasonably be expected to locate or expand in the planning area based on information about national, state, regional, county or local trends. This review of trends is the principal basis for estimating future industrial and other employment uses as described in section (4) of this rule. A use or category of use could reasonably be expected to expand or locate in the planning area if the area possesses the appropriate locational factors for the use or category of use. Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to analyze trends and establish employment projections in a geographic area larger than the planning area and to determine the percentage of employment growth reasonably expected to be captured for the planning area based on the assessment of community economic development potential pursuant to section (4) of this rule. Response: Chapters II and III of the ECA provides a detailed summary of national state, regional, county, and local trends, including information related to employment by sector and firm size; local population and workforce characteristics; and economic conditions and advantages associated with the Woodburn area, including transportation connectivity, labor market conditions, economic partnerships, and economic development tools employed by the City. Chapter IV of the ECA includes additional information related to a comparison of the Woodburn economy and its advantages to identify a range of industry types that can be considered targeted economic opportunities over the planning period. This section of the ECA describes economic specialization of the Marion County and Woodburn economy, including how various industrial sectors stack up against similar sectors across the state and nation.This chapter also discusses the economic drivers of a local or regional economy that are critical in informing the character and nature of future employment and includes a shift- share analysis that measures the local effect of economic performance within different industries or occupations in Woodburn and Marion County in comparison to national trends. Finally, Chapter V summarizes target industries for Woodburn based on the information and analyses in the preceding chapters. The ECA identifies seven target industries for Woodburn that have the potential to build on community economic development characteristics and strengths and achieve economic goals. This information helps provide the basis for subsequent recommendations in the ECA related to future economic development potential, including for target industries. Highlights from this component of the ECA are included in the findings associated with Statewide Planning Goal 9. (2) Identification of Required Site Types. The economic opportunities analysis must identify the number of sites by type reasonably expected to be needed to accommodate the expected LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 6 of 16 employment growth based on the site characteristics typical of expected uses. Cities and counties are encouraged to examine existing firms in the planning area to identify the types of sites that may be needed for expansion. Industrial or other employment uses with compatible site characteristics may be grouped together into common site categories. Response: Chapter VI of the ECA includes a projection of future employment and associated land needs. This includes projections of future employment by major industrial sector and a translation of these employment figures into a project of needed land by land use category (e.g., industrial, commercial, flex space, etc.). The ECA includes a projection of land need both in the long term (20 years) and in the short term (5 years). (3) Inventory of Industrial and Other Employment Lands. Comprehensive plans for all areas within urban growth boundaries must include an inventory of vacant and developed lands within the planning area designated for industrial or other employment use. (a) For sites inventoried under this section, plans must provide the following information: (A) The description, including site characteristics, of vacant or developed sites within each plan or zoning district, (8)A description of any development constraints or infrastructure needs that affect the buildable area of sites in the inventory, and (C) For cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization, the inventory must also include the approximate total acreage and percentage of sites within each plan or zoning district that comprise the short-term supply of land. (b) When comparing current land supply to the projected demand, cities and counties may inventory contiguous lots or parcels together that are within a discrete plan or zoning district. (c) Cities and counties that adopt objectives or policies providing for prime industrial land pursuant to OAR 660-009-0020(6) (Industrial and Other Employment Development Policies) and OAR 660-009-0025(8) must identify and inventory any vacant or developed prime industrial land according to section (3)(a) of this rule. Response: Chapter VII of the ECA includes a summary of the reconciliation of projected land needs and supply, including a summary of a buildable lands inventory (131-1) conducted as part of the ECA process.The BLI is summarized in a separate, more detailed supporting BLI report.The BLI and EOA describe and evaluate lands zoned for employment uses, including their development status (vacant, partially vacant, and developed); constraints to development associated with natural resources and hazards, as well as other factors; and the resulting net supply of buildable land by zoning categories. The ECA also compares the supply of land with the projected land need by zoning classification and identifies the relative surplus or deficit of land in each classification. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 7 of 16 (4)Assessment of Community Economic Development Potential. The economic opportunities analysis must estimate the types and amounts of industrial and other employment uses likely to occur in the planning area. The estimate must be based on information generated in response to sections (1) to (3) of this rule and must consider the planning area's economic advantages and disadvantages. Relevant economic advantages and disadvantages to be considered may include but are not limited to: (a) Location, size and buying power of markets, (b)Availability of transportation facilities for access and freight mobility, (c) Public facilities and public services, (d) Labor market factors; (e)Access to suppliers and utilities, (f) Necessary support services, (g) Limits on development due to federal and state environmental protection laws; and (h) Educational and technical training programs. Response: As noted above, Chapter VII of the ECA estimates the future employment projections and land need associated with specific employment sectors in Woodburn. As noted under previous sections above, it relies on a variety of data and analyses to reach these conclusions, including the factors listed above. In addition, Chapter VIII of the ECA summarizes findings and conclusions from the ECA. This includes a set of recommended ECA Implementation Actions geared towards the following overall goals and objectives: • Meet industrial and commercial land needs • Implement policy and code strategies • Support and expand employment in targeted industries • Support small business development • Implement workforce initiatives (5) Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to assess community economic development potential through a visioning or some other public input-based process in conjunction with state agencies. Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to use the assessment of community economic development potential to form the community economic development objectives pursuant to OAR 660-009-0020 (Industrial and Other Employment Development Policies)(1)(a). Response: As described in the findings associated with consistency with Statewide Planning Goal 1 (Citizen Involvement), the City and its consultants have met this requirement in a variety of ways as part of the planning process. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 8 of 16 - Advisory Committee Meetings. The City formed and conducted meetings with a technical advisory group (TAG) for the ECA. The committee met three times to review materials and provide direction at key milestones. - Planning Commission and City Council Public Meetings. The City conducted public meetings before the Planning Commission and City Council to present information.The City followed state and local public notice procedures to inform members of the public about these meetings. Conclusion: The ECA is consistent with the OAR requirements for preparation of an ECA. Oregon Administrative Rules (OAR) 660-009-0020 guide preparation of Comprehensive Plan economic development policies and objectives for cities in Oregon. Following is a summary of consistency with those rules. (1) Comprehensive plans subject to this division must include policies stating the economic development objectives of the planning area. These policies must be based on the community economic opportunities analysis prepared pursuant to OAR 660-009-0015 and must provide the following: (a) Community Economic Development Objectives. The plan must state the overall objectives for economic development in the planning area and identify categories or particular types of industrial and other employment uses desired by the community. Policy objectives may identify the level of short-term supply of land the planning area needs. Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to select a competitive short-term supply of land as a policy objective. (b) Commitment to Provide a Competitive Short-Term Supply. Cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization must adopt a policy stating that a competitive short-term supply of land as a community economic development objective for the industrial and other employment uses selected through the economic opportunities analysis pursuant to OAR 660-009-0015. (c) Commitment to Provide Adequate Sites and Facilities. The plan must include policies committing the city or county to designate an adequate number of suitable sites, types and locations. The plan must also include policies, through public facilities planning and transportation system planning, to provide necessary public facilities and transportation facilities for the planning area. Response:The 2023 Comprehensive Plan Goal and Policy updates for Goals and Policies E, F and G (Exhibit A) are consistent with OAR 660-009-0020 as they provide specific goals and policies for ongoing economic development for the community. The Woodburn Comprehensive Plan (WCP) provides overall objectives (goals) and short-term policies committing the City to specific and actionable programs to meet identified objectives. The ECA includes a short-term need and number of sites, types and locations for the City's employment land and the City has a series of recently updated or under update infrastructure master plans, including the 2019 Transportation System Plan (TSP) and water LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 9 of 16 and wastewater master plans that are currently under review and update, to provide necessary public facilities for current and future employment lands. The City collaborates with county, regional and state agencies, and public and private utility providers, to ensure adequate public facilities are appropriately coordinated and planned. (2) Plans for cities and counties within a Metropolitan Planning Organization or that adopt policies related to short-term supply of land, must include detailed strategies for preparing the total land supply for development and for replacing the short-term supply of land as it is developed. These policies must describe dates, events or both, that trigger local review of the short-term supply of land. Response: Woodburn is not within a Metropolitan Planning Organization and this section is not applicable. However, the City is committed to working with DLCD and other state agencies to address any potential deficit in supply in a timely manner, albeit as a separate legislative action requiring Council direction. Goal E-1 states, "Woodburn shall provide and maintain an adequate supply of suitable industrial sites to attract targeted firms consistent with Statewide Planning Goal 9 (Economy of the State), the recommendations of the 2023 Woodburn Economic Opportunities Analysis and the Woodburn Economic Development Strategies". Most recently, the City was awarded funding assistance to support transportation planning work for the City's Urban Reserve Area, in compliance with OAR 660-021-0040(6). (3) Plans may include policies to maintain existing categories or levels of industrial and other employment uses including maintaining downtowns or central business districts. Response:The WCP supports additional investment in existing employment areas and the historic downtown area and the City's Urban Renewal District and programs include the downtown core and the City has initiated numerous programs to support the vitality of the downtown core and community. A recent example is the City's implementation of urban renewal funding to support the Front Street revitalization project in and ongoing business improvement and fagade programs in our historic downtown area. (4) Plan policies may emphasize the expansion of and increased productivity from existing industries and firms as a means to facilitate local economic development. Response: Woodburn actively seeks to support infill and redevelopment of sites zoned for employment through such plan policies as "Identify, promote, and regulate to bring about urban infill and redevelopment of existing commercial areas within the community..." (Goal F-1) and "The City should at all times have sufficient land to accommodate the retail needs of the City and surrounding market area while encouraging commercial infill and redevelopment" (Policy F-1.1). LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 10 of 16 (5) Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to adopt plan policies that include brownfield redevelopment strategies for retaining land in industrial use and for qualifying them as part of the local short-term supply of land. Response: Woodburn actively seeks to support retention of land for industrial uses to support our employment land supply by through redevelopment and infill strategies such as the Highway 99E Corridor Plan, Woodburn Downtown Development Plan, and Woodburn Urban Renewal District. The City successfully partnered with Business Oregon to access brownfield revitalization funding to in our and in the reuse of a recently burned food bank property in our historic downtown area to ensure re-use of the property. (6) Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to adopt plan policies pertaining to prime industrial land pursuant to OAR-009-0025(8). Response: Woodburn has taken active steps to preserve and protect our Southwest Industrial Reserve (SWIR) though such policies as "Woodburn shall reserve suitable sites in the SWIR for targeted industrial firms, as directed by the 2023 Woodburn EOA" (Goal E-2) and "SWIR designation shall be reserved exclusively for industrial uses identified in the ECA and shall not be converted to another commercial or residential land use map designation (Policy E-2.1). (7) Cities and counties are strongly encouraged to adopt plan policies that include additional approaches to implement this division, including but not limited to: (a) Tax incentives and disincentives, (b) Land use controls and ordinances, (c) Preferential tax assessments, (d) Capital improvement programming, (e) Property acquisition techniques, (f) Public/private partnerships, and (g) Intergovernmental agreements. Response: Woodburn's adopted Urban Renewal District, established Enterprise Zone, updated development ordinances, and similar economic development tools and strategies allow the City significant opportunity to support existing business firms and attract new strategically targeted industries and employment opportunities for our community. Woodburn also has a proven track record in partnering with local economic development agencies and state partners to augment land productivity in both short and long-term planning horizons to meet the economic development objectives for the planning area. Conclusion: The Comprehensive Plan update is consistent with the OAR requirements for economic development objectives and policies. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 11 of 16 Consistency with Woodburn Comprehensive Plan Goals and Policies The proposed Comprehensive Plan update includes a variety of policies to help the City achieve its economic objectives. In many ways, the City's existing policies already provide a strong policy basis and framework to support adoption of the ECA. They center around supporting the growth and expansion of target industries identified in the ECA. To supplement existing goals and policies, a number of policy amendments are recommended to further strengthen the City's economic policies and ensure they are consistent with state and regional economic objectives and requirements. Recommendations include the following: Strategic updates to the following sections of the Comprehensive Plan: - E. Industrial Land Development and Employment - F. Commercial Land Development and Employment - G. Growth Management and Annexation New policies recommended to these sections are intended to help address challenges related to growing target industries identified on the ECA. Generally, the new policies are intended to: - Support the development of an adequate workforce; and - Coordinate with ODOT to maintain mobility for the 1-5 interchange with Oregon Highways 214 & 219 (Exit 271) The recommended updates to Comprehensive Plan Sections E, F, and G include clarification of existing policies for consistency with the EOA and current conditions in Woodburn and removal of defunct policies. In addition, recommended updates to Section F. Commercial Land Development and Employment include a new Goal (Goal F-2) with related policies. Goal F-2 states: "Enhance the quality of the city workforce and support development of target industries." Included are four new policies for supporting a versatile workforce, encouraging training and development to support regional industry needs, and prioritizing infrastructure improvements or incentive tools to support development of targeted industries. The policies echo implementation recommendations identified in the ECA. Further, recommended updates to Section G include one new Goal (Goal G-1.2) and three new policies. Goal G-1.2 states: "The City's goal is to have development construct or fund their proportionate share of public improvements to the greatest extent legally permissible, to lessen the cost of land of land development to the City in order to lessen taxpayer burden for landowners in the context of Oregon Ballot Measures 5 (1990) and 50 (1997).- LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 12 of 16 The new policies in Section G are primarily focused on coordinating and collaborating with ODOT to maintain circulation and mobility in the 1-5 interchange area, to coordinate with other agencies improve the transportation system to accommodate employment growth, and to factor the City Transit Development Plan (Resolution No. 2213, June 12, 2023) into future growth management activities. (The City runs its own local bus system, and the Salem Area Mass Transit District branded as Cherriots serves the city.) LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 13 of 16 Conformance with -thy Woodburn Development Ordinance WDO 4.01 Decision-Making Procedures 4.01.02E. Type V Decisions (Legislative): Type V decisions involve legislative actions where the City Council enacts or amends the City's land use regulations, comprehensive plan, Official Zoning Map or some component of these documents.Type V decisions may only be initiated by the City Council. The Planning Commission holds an initial public hearing on the proposal before making a recommendation to the City Council. The City Council then holds a final public hearing and renders a decision. Public notice is provided for all public hearings (Section 4.01.14).The City Council's decision is the City's final decision and is appealable to LUBA within 21 days after it becomes final. The City Council on October 9, 2023, passed Resolution No. 2221 initiating Legislative Amendment 23-02. The Planning Commission hearing was scheduled for November 9, 2023, and the City Council hearing is tentatively scheduled for December 9, 2023, pending a recommendation to the Council by the Planning Commission. On October 4, 2023, staff sent a Post-Acknowledgement Plan Amendment (PAPA) to the Department of Land Conversation and Development (DLCD) in compliance with OAR 660-018-0020. The City notified affected government agencies in conformance with WDO 4.01.14.D. on October 19, 2023, and published notice of both the Planning Commission and City Council hearings in the Woodburn Independent newspaper on November 1, 2023. The provisions are met. Notice ORS 227.186 Notice to property owners of hearing on certain zone change;form of notice; ... (2) All legislative acts relating to comprehensive plans, land use planning or zoning adopted by a city shall be by ordinance. Pending a decision from the City Council following its public hearing, the Council would be able to direct staff to return with an ordinance for adoption at a subsequent Council meeting. (3) ... at least 20 days but not more than 40 days before the date of the first hearing on an ordinance that proposes to amend an existing comprehensive plan or any element thereof, or to adopt a new comprehensive plan, a city shall cause a written individual notice of a land use change to be mailed to each owner whose property would have to be rezoned in order to comply with the amended or new comprehensive plan if the ordinance becomes effective. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 14 of 16 (4) At least 20 days but not more than 40 days before the date of the first hearing on an ordinance that proposes to rezone property, a city shall cause a written individual notice of a land use change to be mailed to the owner of each lot or parcel of property that the ordinance proposes to rezone. ... (5) An additional individual notice of land use change required by subsection (3) or (4) of this section shall be approved by the city and shall describe in detail how the proposed ordinance would affect the use of the property. The notice shall: . . . (6) At least 30 days prior to the adoption or amendment of a comprehensive plan or land use regulation by a city pursuant to a requirement of periodic review of the comprehensive plan under ORS 197.628, 197.633 and 197.636,the city shall cause a written individual notice of the land use change to be mailed to the owner of each lot or parcel that will be rezoned as a result of the adoption or enactment. ... (7) Notice provided under this section may be included with the tax statement required under ORS 311.250. (8) Notwithstanding subsection (7) of this section, a city may provide notice of a hearing at any time provided notice is mailed by first class mail or bulk mail to all persons for whom notice is required under subsections (3) and (4) of this section. (9) For purposes of this section, property is rezoned when the city... The City proposes no rezoning or WDO amendment at this time. Because the City is not changing the base zoning classification of property, in other words neither rezoning nor making a zone change, Sections (3), (4) and (5) above are not applicable. Because the proposed amendment is not pursuant to a requirement of periodic review, Sections (6) & (7) & (8) are not applicable. (10)The provisions of this section do not apply to legislative acts of the governing body of the city resulting from action of the Legislative Assembly or the Land Conservation and Development Commission for which notice is provided under ORS 197.047 or resulting from an order of a court of competent jurisdiction. Staff finds the proposed BLI and ECA update and proposed updates to Comprehensive Plan Economic Goals and Policies do not result from actions of the Legislative Assembly or the Land Conservation and Development Commission (LCDC) and that ORS 197.047 is not applicable. As a result, the City of Woodburn is not required for LA 23-02 to do a "Measure 56" notice, the phrase referring to Ballot Measure 56 (1998) that the legislature codified in ORS 227.186, which the legislature later revised via Senate Bill 516 (2003). Staff issued notices of public hearing pursuant to state law and WDO 4.01.14C & D. Notice of the Planning Commission and published notice of City Council public hearings in the Woodburn Independent newspaper on November 1, 2023. The City last updated and adopted its Economic Opportunities Analysis (ECA)via Ordinance No. 2391 on October 31, 2005. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 15 of 16 Staff briefed the Planning Commission on LA-23-02 on October 12, 2023, and the City Council on October 23, 2023. The established Technical Advisory Group (TAG) for the project met on April 13, June 9, and August 11, 2023, and made a recommendation to staff to proceed with adoption. The provisions are met. LA-23-02 City Council Staff Report: Exhibit C-Analyses& Findings Page 16 of 16